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Disentangling the paradox of insect phenology: are temporal trends reflecting the response to warming?

  • Global change ecology - Original Paper
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Abstract

The strength and direction of phenological responses to changes in climate have been shown to vary significantly both among species and among populations of a species, with the overall patterns not fully resolved. Here, we studied the temporal and spatial variability associated with the response of several insect species to recent global warming. We use hierarchical models within a model comparison framework to analyze phenological data gathered over 40 years by the Japan Meteorological Agency on the emergence dates of 14 insect species at sites across Japan. Contrary to what has been predicted with global warming, temporal trends of annual emergence showed a later emergence day for some species and sites over time, even though temperatures are warming. However, when emergence data were analyzed as a function of temperature and precipitation, the overall response pointed out an earlier emergence day with warmer conditions. The apparent contradiction between the response to temperature and trends over time indicates that other factors, such as declining populations, may be affecting the date phenological events are being recorded. Overall, the responses by insects were weaker than those found for plants in previous work over the same time period in these ecosystems, suggesting the potential for ecological mismatches with deleterious effects for both suites of species. And although temperature may be the major driver of species phenology, we should be cautious when analyzing phenological datasets as many other factors may also be contributing to the variability in phenology.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Japan Meteorological Agency for collecting and making available the phenological data used here. Funding for this research was provided by the US National Science Foundation (DEB 0842465) to R.P., J.S. and I.I.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA

    Elizabeth R. Ellwood & Richard B. Primack

  2. School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA

    Jeffrey M. Diez & Inés Ibáñez

  3. Faculty of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo City University, Yokohama, 224-0015, Japan

    Hiromi Kobori

  4. Laboratory of Biodiversity Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-8637, Japan

    Hiroyoshi Higuchi

  5. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269, USA

    John A. Silander

Authors
  1. Elizabeth R. Ellwood
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  2. Jeffrey M. Diez
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  3. Inés Ibáñez
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  4. Richard B. Primack
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  5. Hiromi Kobori
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  6. Hiroyoshi Higuchi
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  7. John A. Silander
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Correspondence to Elizabeth R. Ellwood.

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Communicated by Jérome Casas.

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Ellwood, E.R., Diez, J.M., Ibáñez, I. et al. Disentangling the paradox of insect phenology: are temporal trends reflecting the response to warming?. Oecologia 168, 1161–1171 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-011-2160-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-011-2160-4

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