Projected impact of future climate conditions on the agronomic and environmental performance of Canadian dairy farms
Introduction
Dairying in Canada and elsewhere is known to have significant environmental impacts. Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canadian milk production, based on annual milk production of 81.8 million hL in 2015 (Canadian Dairy Information Centre, 2015), can be estimated at 8.4 Mt CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) (Quantis Canada et al., 2012). Nevertheless, the environmental impact of dairy farms is not limited to GHG emissions, as the dairy sector also generates NH3 emissions (Sheppard et al., 2011b) and contributes to water pollution through nitrate and P losses (Paul and Zebarth, 1997, Simard et al., 1995), as has been demonstrated in Canadian studies.
Although a number of recent studies proposed mitigation measures for reducing the environmental impact of Canadian dairy farms (Hawkins et al., 2015, Chai et al., 2016, Jayasundara et al., 2016), little research has sought to project how climate change will affect the environmental performance of Canadian dairy farms in the future. Based on projections derived for many northern regions in the world (Tatsumi et al., 2011), climate change can be expected to have a positive impact on crop productivity in Canada given the expected increased CO2 concentration, warmer temperature, and longer growing season (Qian et al., 2016a, Qian et al., 2016b, Smith et al., 2013, Wang et al., 2012). However, Canadian studies using simulation models have projected an increase in N2O emissions from crop production systems as a consequence of higher N rates required to support expected greater crop yield (Smith et al., 2013), as well as an increase in annual NO3 losses from an agricultural watershed due to expected increase in precipitation (Dayyani et al., 2012). Climate change can reasonably be expected to affect other environmental emissions as well, since it is known, for example, that higher temperatures increase NH3 and CH4 emissions from manure (Sheppard et al., 2011b, Jayasundara et al., 2016) and that an increase in precipitation intensity leads to higher P losses (Messing et al., 2015). A better understanding of the overall agronomic and environmental effects of changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on dairy farming through modelling would enable the identification of the best suited mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for sustainable production in the future (Rotz et al., 2016).
A dairy farm is a complex system, and comprehensive whole-farm simulations are required to describe the internal cycling of nutrients on the farm and the nutrient exchange that occurs between the farm and its environment (Schils et al., 2007). Several farm-scale models have been developed in recent years, such as DairyWise in the Netherlands (Schils et al., 2007), WFM (Whole-Farm Model) in New Zealand (Beukes et al., 2008, Wastney et al., 2002), GAMEDE (Global Activity Model for Evaluating the sustainability of Dairy Enterprises) in France (Vayssières et al., 2009a, Vayssières et al., 2009b), and the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) in the United States (Rotz et al., 2015). The IFSM is the only process-based farm-scale model that has been developed to represent dairy, beef, and cash-crop farms in the temperate regions of the northern United States and southern Canada. The model provides an assessment of the economic and environmental sustainability of dairy farms (Rotz et al., 2014). The model's components include crops and soils, harvest and storage, animal feeding, manure storage and handling, and economic analysis (Rotz et al., 2015). Jégo et al. (2015) previously showed that IFSM can be used to simulate the current yield and nutritive value of perennial forage crops and annual crops in eastern Canada. Thivierge et al. (2016) used IFSM to simulate the future yield and nutritive value of an alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) and timothy (Phleum pratense L.) mixture in eastern Canada. Environmental losses simulated by IFSM (e.g. NH3 and GHG emissions; N and P losses to water) have been compared with reports in the literature and with farm measurements and have been found to be in the realistic range (Chianese et al., 2009a, Chianese et al., 2009b, Chianese et al., 2008, Rotz et al., 2014, Rotz et al., 2011).
The objective of this study was to examine the projected impact of climate conditions in the near (2020–2049) and distant (2050–2079) future on the agronomic and environmental performance of one virtual dairy farm in each of three climatically contrasting areas of Canada, by using IFSM with three climate models and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The main hypotheses were that under future climate conditions, (1) yield would increase for most crops except for small-grain cereals, (2) emissions of N2O, CH4, and NH3 in the atmosphere as well as losses of N and P in water through runoff and leaching would increase, and (3) N and C footprints would increase, particularly in the distant future.
Section snippets
Climate scenarios and weather data
A virtual dairy farm was created for each of three climatically contrasting agricultural areas in Canada: Central Alberta (CAB) in the Prairies Ecozone, Quebec Southwest (QSW) in the Mixedwood Plains Ecozone, and Quebec East (QE) in the Atlantic Maritime Ecozone (Fig. 1). For each virtual farm, daily minimum and maximum air temperatures, precipitation, and solar radiation were retrieved from the nearest weather stations for the 1971–2000 reference period (Fig. 1).
The impact of climate change on
Agronomic performance
The yield of all silage crops (corn, barley, and perennial forage crops) increased in future scenarios (Table 3). Among perennial forage crops, pure alfalfa in CAB had the largest yield increase in future scenarios (+ 30% to + 62%), followed by the alfalfa–timothy mixture in QE (+ 23% to + 35%) and QSW (+ 3% to + 19%). The increase in silage corn yield was larger in CAB and QE (+ 46% to + 84%) than in QSW (+ 15% to + 19%). Soybean and grain corn were grown only in QSW. Soybean yield increased in all
Crop yield
The projected yield increase for the alfalfa–timothy forage mixture in QSW and QE under future climate conditions is consistent with the findings of Thivierge et al. (2016). Indeed, the projected longer growing season and greater GDD accumulation resulted in an increased number of forage cuts per year. The smaller yield increase projected under the most extreme scenario (DF8.5) in QSW was due to greater water and temperature stresses (Thivierge et al., 2016). Thivierge et al. (2016) also
Conclusions
This study simulated the effects of climate change on the agronomic and environmental performance of Canadian dairy farms in three climatically contrasting agricultural areas in Canada. Under future climate conditions, yields of perennial forages and warm-season crops were projected to increase, especially in the two colder areas (CAB and QE), whereas yields of small-grain cereals were projected to decrease. The environmental emissions that were projected to increase the most included NH3
Acknowledgments
This study was financially supported by the Dairy Research Cluster as part of the Canadian Agri-Science Clusters Initiative of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). The senior author is grateful to AAFC for the financial support it provided through the Visiting Fellowships in Canadian Government Laboratories Program. The authors warmly thank Sheilah Nolan from Alberta Agriculture and Forestry for reviewing the manuscript, René Morissette from AAFC for his assistance with data processing, and
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