ALEX: A model for the viability analysis of spatially structured populations

https://doi.org/10.1016/0006-3207(95)90039-XGet rights and content

Abstract

A new generic model for assessing the viability of spatially structured populations, ALEX (Analysis of the Likelihood of EXtinction), is described. Strengths and weaknesses of ALEX are discussed. ALEX only models one sex, ignores genetics, and is inadequate for modelling the dynamics of very small populations. However ALEX contains four features that make it useful for assessing the merits of different management options for populations that are distributed in a spatially complex landscape: (1) ALEX allows each patch to have different qualities including a habitat variable that may respond to catastrophes. In this way the dynamics of species which prefer a particular successional stage of a habitat can be modelled. (2) ALEX allows the user to specify a wide variety of catastrophic processes that affect and may depend on population size and/or the state of the habitat in a patch. (3) Sensitivity analysis is essential to the PVA process. ALEX allows automatic sensitivity analysis of most parameters. Although demographic stochasticity is modelled, ALEX can quickly simulate the dynamics of very large populations. (4) Modelling movement between patches by individuals is an important part of the dynamics of spatially structured populations. ALEX permits two types of movement by individuals. This allows the user to explore the importance of corridors, habitat selection, and mortality associated with dispersal.

References (48)

  • J. Swart et al.

    A mathematical model to investigate the demographic viability of low-density samango monkey (Cercopithecus mitis) populations in Natal, South Africa

    Ecol. Modell.

    (1993)
  • R. Virkkala et al.

    Population contraction of the white-backed woodpecker Dendrocopus leucotos in Finland as a consequence of habitat alteration

    Biol. Conserv.

    (1993)
  • H.R. Akçakaya et al.
  • P. Armbruster et al.

    A Population Viability Analysis for African elephant (Loxodonta africana): How big should reserves be?

    Conserv. Biol.

    (1993)
  • M.S. Boyce

    Population viability analysis

    Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst.

    (1992)
  • M. Burgman et al.

    Risk assessment in conservation biology

    (1993)
  • M. Burgman et al.

    The effect of initial distribution on extinction risks: implications for the reintroduction of Leadbeater's possum

  • M.A. Burgman et al.

    A stochastic model for the viability of Banksia cuneata populations: environmental, demographic and genetic effects

    J. Appl. Ecol.

    (1992)
  • S. Ferson

    RAMAS/stage: generalised stage-based modelling for population dynamics

    (1990)
  • S. Ferson et al.

    RAMAS/age: modelling fluctuations in age-structured populations

    (1990)
  • S. Ferson et al.

    The dangers of being few: demographic risk analysis for rare species extinction

    N. Y. St. Mus. Bull.

    (1990)
  • D. Goodman

    The demography of chance extinction

  • L.V. Ginzburg et al.

    Quasiextinction probabilities as a measure of impact on population growth

    Risk Anal.

    (1982)
  • S.M. Haig et al.

    Population viability analysis for a small population of red-cockaded woodpeckers and an evaluation of enhancement strategies

    Conserv. Biol.

    (1993)
  • Cited by (104)

    • A Review of Population Viability Analysis and its use in Cheetah Conservation

      2018, Cheetahs: Biology and Conservation: Biodiversity of the World: Conservation from Genes to Landscapes
    • A novel dispersal algorithm in individual-based, spatially-explicit Population Viability Analysis: A new role for genetic measures in model testing?

      2015, Environmental Modelling and Software
      Citation Excerpt :

      The habitat quality of each cell is on a 0–1 scale. Following ALEX (Possingham and Davies, 1995), the cell values are not directly linked to survival and fecundity. Instead they can be optionally related to the carrying capacity of each cell using a link function.

    View all citing articles on Scopus

    Present address: Department of Applied Mathematics, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia

    View full text