We make an attempt to study specific features of weather- and climate-forming processes developing due to the energy and mass transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere in the North Atlantic, as well as responses of the climate of Ukraine to the main climate-forming factors. These studies are based on a statistical model in the form of a system of third-order regression equations with feedback. We deduce a system of generating functions that allow us to estimate the regression coefficients. Within the developed model, we applied the factor analysis to compress the input information about the affecting factors in the region where the weather ships were located. This allowed us to reveal the tendencies of variations in the characteristics participating in the energy and mass transfer. The response of the climate in various regions of Ukraine to the processes running in the North Atlantic was determined using the cluster analysis whose algorithm was developed by the authors. We performed a number of experiments for various situations in the region of the North Atlantic that are possible due to the global warming of the climate and studied the response of climatic characteristics on the territory of Ukraine under similar processes. The adequacy of the developed model was verified on the basis of data on the real situation in February 2006. It is shown that the model satisfactorily describes the responses of climatic characteristics in regions of Ukraine to variations of the affecting factors in the North Atlantic.
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Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 51–66, July–August, 2009.
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Shkol’nyi, E.P., Serga, É.N. Influence of processes in the ocean–atmosphere system in the North Atlantic on the intraannual variation of climatic characteristics on the territory of Ukraine. Phys Oceanogr 19, 240–253 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11110-009-9050-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11110-009-9050-x