Climate and change in oceanic ecosystems: The value of time-series data

doi:10.1016/0169-5347(90)90084-Q

Trends in Ecology & Evolution

Volume 5, Issue 9, September 1990, Pages 293-299

https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-5347(90)90084-Q Get rights and content

Abstract

The consequences of climatic change for the structure and function of oceanic ecosystems are of considerable current interest. A predictive, mechanistic model of these consequences based on our scanty knowledge of the dynamics of the systems' components seems unlikely: a complex set of simultaneous partial differential equations depicting population interactions and transfer rates of energy and materials would be necessary. A second approach is simply to measure the phenomenology of variations in both climate and ecosystem components, for the purpose of detecting shared patterns. Two studies of the latter type have been done. Both have been successful in revealing relationships between climatic variation and large-scale, large-amplitude, low-frequency biological variability. Both sets of results can provide models for the prediction of consequences, and both can serve as baselines for the definition of ‘change’.

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Physical and biological cycles between 40 and 170 years length have also been detected in single species analyses of physical and fisheries time series from eastern north Pacific and north Atlantic oceans (Beamish et al., 1999; Klyashtorin, 2001; Finney et al., 2002; Berger et al., 2004). Many periods of ocean fluctuation are observed (McGowan, 1990; Finney et al., 2002; Hollowed et al., 2007). Ecological responses to these fluctuations depend on their amplitude and duration compared to the sensitivity and length of species life cycles.
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Stability and resilience in coastal copepod assemblages: The case of the Mediterranean long-term ecological research at Station MC (LTER-MC)
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Communities are expected to change along with abiotic or biotic perturbations as a result of climate and/or anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, modifications in biotic components are sentinels of variations in forcing, becoming tools for predicting future dynamics in a changing ocean (McGowan, 1990). Climate displays well characterized patterns at different spatial and temporal scales (IPCC, 2007).
We analyzed the copepod assemblages over two decades (1984–2006) in a coastal ongoing time-series at Station MC in the inner Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea, Western Mediterranean), which is part of the International network of Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER). The seasonal and interannual time courses of species abundance and composition were related to depth integrated temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll a, which provide essential information on the local environmental dynamics. Our aims were to characterize the main modes of copepod variability and to highlight possible changes occurred in the period in relation to the local environmental dynamics. Despite the great variability at seasonal and interannual scales, our site did not show evidence of discontinuities or trends in water column properties as compared to other Mediterranean sites for the same period, which we interpret as resulting from the position of Station MC that is exposed to the influence of a complex climate forcing. Abrupt changes did not appear for most of the key representative species (e.g., Acartia clausi, Centropages typicus, Paracalanus parvus, Temora stylifera, and juveniles of Clausocalanus spp./P. parvus) beyond the high interannual variability in the abundance patterns. A few indications suggest that our station might have acquired less coastal characters (e.g., decreasing chlorophyll a concentrations), but the signals from the copepod assemblages appeared only in rare species. A significant increase was observed in the occurrence of some typical offshore calanoids (e.g., Neocalanus gracilis, Scolecithricella spp.), while a few species typical of confined areas disappeared (e.g., Acartia margalefi, Paracartia latisetosa). STATICO analysis showed a significant resilience in the seasonal cycle of the copepod assemblages at Station MC, even when there was high variability in the environmental parameters. While the changes recorded in the least abundant species may be indicative of long-term variations, we interpret the overall persistence of the basic community as resulting from the flexibility of coastal species to adapt to variation in environmental conditions.
Management application of an empirical model of sardine-climate regime shifts
2007, Marine Policy
In previous work, we show that accumulated anomalies of physical indices are proportional to California sardine landings and that the accumulated anomaly curves change the sign of their slope, showing maxima (minima) when climate is favorable (unfavorable) to successful completion of the sardine life cycle change. Here, we find unique time series characteristics of the periods when the climate changed for sardines in the 1930–2004 period. Only one 50–70 year cycle is examined but the consistency of the dominant signals in measurements taken independently within the sardine's environment at locations separated by thousands of kilometers, supports the argument that the events affecting the ocean-climate of the California Current region and consequently sardine life-cycle are large-scale and persist over multi-decadal periods. Year-to-year monitoring of the climate regime-state in the physical environment and its accumulating effects on sardine populations is also described. The ability to analyze climate shifts and monitor their effects on the sardine populations can reduce uncertainty in making resource management, social and business decisions. Possible effects of management decisions affecting transboundary fisheries issues within United States (US) and between the US and its Pacific neighbors are clarified. The methods presented will add an analysis of low-frequency events to the current management oriented analyses of interannual events, which are part of the existing Pacific Fishery Management Council sardine management plan.
Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data
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The Arctic has undergone dramatic change during the past decade. The observed changes include atmospheric sea-level pressure, wind fields, sea-ice drift, ice cover, length of melt season, change in precipitation patterns, change in hydrology and change in ocean currents and watermass distribution. It is likely that these primary changes have altered the carbon cycle and biological systems, but the difficulty of observing these together with sporadic, incomplete time series makes it difficult to evaluate what the changes have been. Because contaminants enter global systems and transport through air and water, the changes listed above will clearly alter contaminant pathways. Here, we review what is known about recent changes using the Arctic Oscillation as a proxy to help us understand the forms under which global change will be manifest in the Arctic. For Pb, Cd and Zn, the Arctic is likely to become a more effective trap because precipitation is likely to increase. In the case of Cd, the natural cycle in the ocean appears to have a much greater potential to alter exposure than do human releases of this metal. Mercury has an especially complex cycle in the Arctic including a unique scavenging process (mercury depletion events), biomagnifying foodwebs, and chemical transformations such as methylation. The observation that mercury seems to be increasing in a number of aquatic species whereas atmospheric gaseous mercury shows little sign of change suggests that factors related to change in the physical system (ice cover, permafrost degradation, organic carbon cycling) may be more important than human activities.
Organochlorine contaminants offer a surprising array of possibilities for changed pathways. To change in precipitation patterns can be added change in ice cover (air–water exchange), change in food webs either from the top down or from the bottom up (biomagnification), change in the organic carbon cycle and change in diets. Perhaps the most interesting possibility, presently difficult to predict, is combination of immune suppression together with expanding ranges of disease vectors. Finally, biotransport through migratory species is exceptionally vulnerable to changes in migration strength or in migration pathway—in the Arctic, change in the distribution of ice and temperature may already have caused such changes.
Hydrocarbons, which tend to impact surfaces, will be mostly affected by change in the ice climate (distribution and drift tracks). Perhaps the most dramatic changes will occur because our view of the Arctic Ocean will change as it becomes more amenable to transport, tourism and mineral exploration on the shelves. Radionuclides have tended not to produce a radiological problem in the Arctic; nevertheless one pathway, the ice, remains a risk because it can accrue, concentrate and transport radio-contaminated sediments. This pathway is sensitive to where ice is produced, what the transport pathways of ice are, and where ice is finally melted—all strong candidates for change during the coming century.
The changes that have already occurred in the Arctic and those that are projected to occur have an effect on contaminant time series including direct measurements (air, water, biota) or proxies (sediment cores, ice cores, archive material). Although these ‘system’ changes can alter the flux and concentrations at given sites in a number of obvious ways, they have been all but ignored in the interpretation of such time series. To understand properly what trends mean, especially in complex ‘recorders’ such as seals, walrus and polar bears, demands a more thorough approach to time series by collecting data in a number of media coherently. Presently, a major reservoir for contaminants and the one most directly connected to biological uptake in species at greatest risk–the ocean–practically lacks such time series.
Climate change, reproductive performance and diet composition of marine birds in the southern California Current system, 1969-1997
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We studied the effects of low-frequency climate change on the reproductive performance of 11 species of marine bird in the southern California Current system, 1969–1997. Reproductive performance of Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis) and Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocrax auritus) in southern California demonstrated an increase in the 1970s and early 1980s, attributable to recovery from organochlorine contamination (primarily DDE). Brandt's Cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) in central California was the only species to demonstrate a secular increase in performance through time, a pattern that remains unexplained. Ashy Storm-petrel (Oceanodroma homochroa) and Pelagic Cormorant (Phalacrocorax pelagicus) demonstrated curvilinear patterns of change, with decreasing reproductive performance in the past decade. All other species including Western Gull (Larus occidentalis), Pigeon Guillemot (Cepphus columba), Xantus's Murrelet (Synthiloboramphus hypoleucus), Common Murre (Uria aalge), Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) and Rhinoceros Auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata) showed diminishing reproductive performance through time. Patterns of change for the murre and auklets were not significant, presumably because of a lack of reproductive variation for these species, which display a conservative breeding effort (i.e. single-egg clutches). Changes in the birds' abilities to provision young and maintain chick survival during May–July each year appeared most closely related to overall changes in reproductive performance. Dietary change indicated a decline in use of juvenile rockfish (Sebastes spp.) by marine birds in central California. There was also significant interannual variability in consumption of juvenile rockfish and the euphausiid Thysanoessa spinifera. Patterns of change in marine bird reproductive performance were generally concordant between southern and central California after considering the period of recovery for Brown Pelican and Double-crested Cormorant. The decline in reproductive performance and changes in diet composition do not appear directly related to the polarity reversal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in 1976/1977. Instead, reproductive performance and dietary characteristics indicate substantial change in the late 1980s, suggesting another regime-shift at that time.
Reconstructing groundwater and lake level histories in Northern Wisconsin: isolation of groundwater’s influence on tree rings from climatic and environmental drivers
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Trends in Ecology & Evolution

Climate and change in oceanic ecosystems: The value of time-series data

Abstract

Science

Nature

Science

Eos

Geophys. Monogr, Am. Geophys. Union

J. Mar. Biol. Assoc. UK

Rapp. P-V. Reun., Cons. Int. Explor. Mer

Fish. Bull.

Calif. Coop. Oceanic Fish. Invest. Rep.

Rapp. P.-V. Reun.

Cons. Int. Explor. Mer

Climate and Fisheries

J. Mar. Biol. Assoc. UK