Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Top-Dog Index: a new measurement for the demand consistency of the size distribution in pre-pack orders for a fashion discounter with many small branches

  • Published:
Annals of Operations Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We propose the new Top-Dog-Index, a measure for the branch-dependent historic deviation of the supply data of apparel sizes from the sales data of a fashion discounter. Our approach individually measures for each branch the scarcest and the amplest sizes, aggregated over all products. This measurement can iteratively be used to adapt the size distributions in the pre-pack orders for the future. A real-world blind study shows the potential of this distribution free heuristic optimization approach: The gross yield measured in percent of gross value was almost one percentage point higher in the test-group branches than in the control-group branches.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The assumption of a maximal sales period of six months is a management decision ensuring a frequent assortment change, i.e., whenever a product is not sold out within this time frame, prices are cut down in advance.

References

  • Aksoy, A., Ozturk, N., & Sucky, E. (2012). A decision support system for demand forecasting in the clothing industry. International Journal of Clothing Science and Technology, 24(4), 221–236.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bitran, G. R., Caldentey, R., & Mondschein, S. V. (1998). Coordinating clearance markdown sales of seasonal products in retails chains. Operations Research, 46(5), 609–624.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caro, F., & Gallien, J. (2010). Inventory management of a fast-fashion retail network. Operations Research, 58(2), 257–273.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan, L. M. A., Max Shen, Z. J., Simchi-Levi, D., & Swann, J. L. (2006). Coordination of pricing and inventory decisions: A survey and classification. In D. Simchi-Levi, S. D. Wu, Z. J. Max Shen (Eds.), Handbook of quantitative supply chain analysis: Modeling in the e-business era, Chap. 14 (pp. 335–392). Dordrecht: Kluwer.

  • Elmaghraby, W., & Keskinocak, P. (2003). Dynamic pricing in the presence of inventory considerations: Research overview, current practices, and future directions. Management Science, 49(10), 1287–1309.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fisher, T. (2013). On simple representations of stopping times and stopping time sigma-algebras. Statistics & Probability Letters, 83(1), 345–349.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garro, A. (2011). A new product forecasting and distribution optimization: A case study at Zara PhD thesis, MIT, Massachusetts, USA, 194 pp.

  • Kießling, M., Kurz, S., & Rambau, J. (2012). The integrated size and price optimization problem. Numerical Algebra, Control and Optimization, 2(4), 669–693.

  • Kök, A. G., & Fisher, M. L. (2007). Demand estimation and assortment optimization under substitution: Methodology and application. Operations Research, 55(6), 1001–1021.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahajan, S., & van Ryzin, G. (2001). Stocking retail assortments under dynamic consumer substitution. Operations Research, 49(3), 334–351.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mostard, J., Teunterb, R., & de Kostera, R. (2011). Forecasting demand for single-period products: A case study in the apparel industry. European Journal of Operational Research, 211(1), 139–147.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ni, Y., & Fan, F. (2011). A two-stage dynamic sales forecasting model for the fashion retail. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(3), 1529–1536.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quante, R., Meyr, H., & Fleischmann, M. (2008). Revenue management and demand fulfillment: Matching applications, models, and software. International Journal of Services Sciences, 1(2), 127–147.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Ryzin, G., & Mahajan, S. (1999). On the relationship between inventory costs and variety benefits in retail assortments. Management Science, 45(11), 1496–1509.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vulcano, G., van Ryzin, G., & Ratcliff, R. (2012). Estimating primary demand for substitutable products from sales transaction data. Operations Research, 38(6), 7373–7379.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu, Y., Choi, T.-M., & Hui, C.-L. (2011). An intelligent fast sales forecasting model for fashion products. Expert Systems with Applications, 60(2), 313–334.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, J., & Xu, Q. (2008). Analysis of system dynamics model in garment supply chain. Journal of Textile Research, 29(12), 122–125.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the Bayerische Forschungsstiftung, Project DISPO—A Decision Support for the Integrated Size and Price Optimization. The authors thank Lutz Schade and Tobias Metze as well as an anonymous referee for valuable comments on an earlier version of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik, Universität Bayreuth, Bavaria, Germany

    Sascha Kurz & Jörg Rambau

  2. Fakultät für Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Bayreuth, Bavaria, Germany

    Jörg Schlüchtermann

  3. Handwerkskammer für Mittelfranken, Nürnberg, Germany

    Rainer Wolf

Authors
  1. Sascha Kurz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jörg Rambau
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jörg Schlüchtermann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Rainer Wolf
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sascha Kurz.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kurz, S., Rambau, J., Schlüchtermann, J. et al. The Top-Dog Index: a new measurement for the demand consistency of the size distribution in pre-pack orders for a fashion discounter with many small branches. Ann Oper Res 229, 541–563 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-014-1746-8

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-014-1746-8

Keywords

Mathematics Subject Classification

Search

Navigation