RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BEACHES AS DEFENSES AGAINST STORM IMPACTS UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla; Marta Gómez; Vicente Gracia; Xavi Gironella; Manuel García-Leon

doi:10.9753/icce.v34.management.12

No. 34 (2014), Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk

No. 34 (2014)

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BEACHES AS DEFENSES AGAINST STORM IMPACTS UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.12

Published 2014-10-28

Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla⁺⁻
Marta Gómez⁺⁻
Vicente Gracia⁺⁻
Xavi Gironella⁺⁻
Manuel García-Leon⁺⁻

Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech

Marta Gómez

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech

Vicente Gracia

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech

Xavi Gironella

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech

Manuel García-Leon

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech

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Keywords

Beach flooding
MonteCarlo simulations
Climate change
Overtopping

How to Cite

Sánchez-Arcilla, A., Gómez, M., Gracia, V., Gironella, X., & García-Leon, M. (2014). RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BEACHES AS DEFENSES AGAINST STORM IMPACTS UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(34), management.12. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.12

Abstract

An analysis of the probability of failure of beaches along the Catalan coast (Northwestern Mediterranean) is presented. The failure condition is defined when waves are able to overtop the beach and reach the backshore. The analysis is performed by means of a verification equation where most of the related variables are assumed to be stochastic. The probability of failure of beaches is calculated by means of MonteCarlo simulations for present conditions and different climate change scenarios. At present 14% of the Catalan beaches fail the proposed protection function against storms. Under a high-end climate change projection (A1FI) 21% of beaches will fail.

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.12

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References

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RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BEACHES AS DEFENSES AGAINST STORM IMPACTS UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

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