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KCI 등재
상ㆍ하향 통합모형을 활용한 농업 수자원 부족의 경제적 효과 분석
Economic Impacts of Agricultural Water Shortages in Korea - A Combined Top-down and Bottom-up Model Analysis -
이승호 ( Lee Seoung-ho ) , 권오상 ( Kwon Oh-sang ) , 강성원 ( Kang Sung-won )
농촌계획 23권 4호 111-126(16pages)
DOI 10.7851/ksrp.2017.23.4.111
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2018-500-004239410

This study analyzes the impacts of agricultural water shortages in Korea using a combined top-down and bottom-up model. A multi-region multi-output agricultural sector model with detailed descriptions of production technologies and water and land resource constraints has been combined with a standard CGE model. The impacts of four different water shortage scenarios were simulated. It is shown that an active adaptation of crop choices occurs in even the regions with relatively abundant water resources in order to respond to the change in relative output prices caused by water shortages. We found that although the losses in production values are not quite large despite water shortages due to the price feedbacks, the loss in GDP is substantial. We show that our combined approach has advantages in deriving region and product specific production effects as well as the overall GDP loss effect of water shortages.

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