Contents
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8.1 Introduction 8.1 Introduction
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8.2 A Simple Static Model 8.2 A Simple Static Model
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8.3 The IMF Approach 8.3 The IMF Approach
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8.3.1 Why the IMF Approach Does Not Explain the Expansionary Fiscal Stabilization Results 8.3.1 Why the IMF Approach Does Not Explain the Expansionary Fiscal Stabilization Results
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8.3.2 The Censoring Bias of the IMF Approach 8.3.2 The Censoring Bias of the IMF Approach
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8.3.3 The Standard Error of the Impulse Responses 8.3.3 The Standard Error of the Impulse Responses
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8.3.4 Omitting the Countercyclical Response in the IMF Approach 8.3.4 Omitting the Countercyclical Response in the IMF Approach
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8.4 Comparing Averages in the AAP Approach 8.4 Comparing Averages in the AAP Approach
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8.4.1 Identifying Multiyear Fiscal Consolidations 8.4.1 Identifying Multiyear Fiscal Consolidations
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8.4.2 Endogeneity and Preexisting Trends 8.4.2 Endogeneity and Preexisting Trends
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8.5 Relation with the Literature 8.5 Relation with the Literature
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8.6 Case Studies 8.6 Case Studies
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8.6.1 Denmark 8.6.1 Denmark
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Budget Timetable Budget Timetable
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Inflation, Wage Dynamics, Competitiveness, and Interest Rates Inflation, Wage Dynamics, Competitiveness, and Interest Rates
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GDP and Its Components GDP and Its Components
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8.6.2 Ireland 8.6.2 Ireland
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Budget Timeline Budget Timeline
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Inflation, Wage Dynamics, Competitiveness, and Interest Rates Inflation, Wage Dynamics, Competitiveness, and Interest Rates
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GDP and Its Components GDP and Its Components
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8.6.3 Finland 8.6.3 Finland
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Budget Timeline Budget Timeline
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Inflation, Wage Dynamics, Competitiveness, and Interest Rates Inflation, Wage Dynamics, Competitiveness, and Interest Rates
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GDP and Its Components GDP and Its Components
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8.6.4 Sweden 8.6.4 Sweden
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Budget Timeline Budget Timeline
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Inflation, Wage Dynamics, Competitiveness, and Interest Rates Inflation, Wage Dynamics, Competitiveness, and Interest Rates
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GDP and Its Components GDP and Its Components
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8.7 Conclusions 8.7 Conclusions
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References References
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Comment Comment
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References References
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Cite
Abstract
This chapter examines four case studies of large fiscal consolidations. Two of these episodes—Denmark 1982 to 1986 and Ireland 1987 to 1990—were exchange-rate-based consolidations; the other two—Finland 1992 to 1998 and Sweden 1993 to 1998—were undertaken in the opposite circumstances, after abandoning a peg. The analysis addresses two main questions. First, is there evidence that large budget consolidations, particularly those which are based mainly on spending cuts, have expansionary effects in the short run? Second, if the answer to the first question is in the affirmative, how useful is the experience of the past as a guide to the present? A commentary is also included at the end of the chapter.
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