本文於傳統蛛網模型架構中導入住戶購宅自備款係數及預期房價上漲率,在向前學習的設定下,發展住宅市場之非線性價格動態模型。並利用財務槓桿係數和自有住戶對住宅投資報酬的反應係數來探討市場價格調整動態行為之特徵。本文經數理經濟之推論,揭露了自宅消費-投資行為中,市場價格趨向均衡、週期循環或混沌的各種制約條件及其經濟意義。研究結論指出,在兼具消費-投資行為特徵之住宅市場中,若大多數購屋的住戶趨向純投資行為,則房價價格動態行為便可能導致非線性價格動態調整。在自宅消費-投資的理性行為下,不論購屋的住戶對投資報酬採正向反應或負向反應,都存在某些特定情境所對應周期循環及混沌之參數值域。
This paper applied conventional cobweb model, and brought in the home owners' down payment ratio and expected future housing price inflation rate, under the process of price formulation associnted with ”forward learning”, a non-linear dynamic price adjustment model thus developed. Next, by utilizing financial leverage ratio and the reaction coefficient representing home owners' attitude toward the return on housing investment to investigate the characteristics regarding the dynamic adjustment of market price. This paper utilized mathematical economics method to uncover the home owners' behaviors involved in the housing consumption and investment, including the conditions and the economic meanings of market equilibrium tendency, the recurring cycles or chaos. This research concluded that in a housing market that is attributed with consumption and investment characteristics, where the majority of home owners are investors then the dynamic adjustment of house price could very well lead to a non-linear type.