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  • 學位論文

運用籌碼面建構小型股多空選股模型

Use of the Futures Open Contracts to Build Investment Model of Long and Short's Small Caps

指導教授 : 李維平
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摘要


一般投資人要在1500多檔的上市櫃公司中,挑出既便宜又有成長性的股票是相當不容易的一件事情,因此需要透過股票投資分析去挑選股票,一般可分為基本面分析、技術面分析、籌碼面分析三個面向。其中又以基本面分析的價值投資法最為著名,股神巴菲特透過價值投資法在2010年時成為全球首富,此外根據相關文獻統計,長期投資小型股可以得到超額報酬,因為小型股中藏著許多成長性爆發的股票,因此本研究將以價值投資法觀點出發,回測過去2008年至2015年的歷史資料,透過價值型因子與成長型因子利用篩選法、葛林布雷排序法、最後排序選股三層式架構來建立小型股的選股模型,以及透過外資期貨未平倉多空比來進行擇時判斷,最後建立出多空交易策略-小型股的選股模型。 實驗回測結果證實,純作多交易策略以股價淨值比、股東權益報酬率、單月營收成長率、單月營收與上月比為篩選因子績效最好,純作空交易策略以單月營收成長率、單月營收與上月比、股利殖利率為篩選因子績效最好。另外,外資期貨未平倉多空比與大盤漲跌透過迴歸分析結果呈現正相關的線性關係,外資期貨未平倉多空比越大,未來大盤漲的可能性就增加,反之,跌的可能性就增加。

並列摘要


Many people want to invest not easy in stock market that find cheap and growth's stocks.Common stock market analysis can be divided into three types: Fundamental analysis and Analysis Technology and chip analysis. Fundamental analysis is value investing most famous.According to the Literature statistics, Beacause there are many high-growth small cap stocks, Long time invest in small-cap stocks can be a good reward.This study is mainly to value investing ideas, and the experiment data was from 2008 to 2015. It uses Value Factor and Compostion of Growth factor, screening method,Joel Greenblatt's Sorting method and finally sorting method's Three-tier architecture to build Investment Models of Small Caps, Finally, It use Futures Open Contracts Pupil ratio to select investment time, and to build Investment Models of Long and Short's Small Caps. After the experiments, we found that if the stategy is only doing lots of trading, The reward will be best forvalue-based growth factor and the combination of growing factors. If Simply doing short trading strategies, The worse the Model with a combination is, the better the reward will be. By Using Regression Analysis to experiment, the foreign institutional investors open Long and short ratio and TAIEX's Increase are Positive linear relation,When foreign institutional investors open Long and short ratio is bigger ,the higher the possibility of TAIEX's Increase. When foreign institutional investors open Long and short ratio making more low, the TAIEX's Increase decrease impossible.

參考文獻


李正安(2015)。外資在期貨市場和股票市場的投資策略之研究。成功大學商學。
章君豪(2015)。運用效益加成法建構台灣大型股選股模型。中原大學資訊管理研究所。
韓聖弘(2015)。整合基本、技術及籌碼面建構台股投資策略。中原大學資訊管理研究所。
蘇建欽(2015)。運用價值與成長因子建構台灣股市投資模型。中原大學資訊管理研究所。
張穎宸(2009)。營收市價比與股票報酬:台灣市場之進一步證據。淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班。

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