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  • 學位論文

多邊匯率變動對各國出口之影響-以台灣製造業為例

The Effect of Multilateral Exchange Rate to The Exports of Taiwan’s Manufacturing Industries

指導教授 : 陳珮芬教授

摘要


本研究選定2004年到2013年期間中國、日本、韓國、新加坡、馬來西亞、泰國、菲律賓、印尼、英國、美國十國間與台灣的實質雙邊匯率和實質加權匯率、各國實質GDP、台灣實質資本存量的年資料,用追蹤資料(Panel Data) 以固定效果(Fixed Effect)和一般化動差估計法(General Method of Moments;GMM),分析匯率如何影響台灣製造業出口金額到十國的影響。 本研究結果以兩個觀點看實質多邊匯率變動對台灣製造業出口的影響: (一) 當台灣製造業出口同時受到十個國家實質多邊匯率與實質雙邊匯率影響時,根據本研究結果不管在雙邊還是多邊的實質匯率在落後一期升值時會使我國製造業出口金額減少0.03%、1.019%,而實質多邊匯率的變動對我國製造業出口影響比較大,及說明我國較容易受到其他同樣出口製造業產品國家,以及其他國家實質匯率同時變動的影響,也證實了台灣小型出口經濟體在國際地位上較容易受到他國經濟的影響比較沒有主導整個製造業出口市場的地位。(二)分別看十國各別的實質多邊匯率對我國製造業出口時,韓國、新加坡、菲律賓、馬來西亞、泰國、印尼與英國實質加權匯率升值會使得我國製造業出口金額增加0.768%、2.916%、1.772%、1.105%、1.203%、0.639%和8.965%,而中國、日本與美國實質加權匯率升值會使得我國製造業出口金額減少1.624%、0.704和1.203%。

並列摘要


This thesis estimates 10 countries’ multilateral exchange rate including China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, United states, and United Kingdom .We estimate the multilateral exchange rate based on using weighted exchange rate from calculating the population of export’s destination to total exports volume. We concern about how these countries’ multilateral exchange rate changes would affect Taiwan’s manufacturing industries exports by using general method of moments compared with fixed effect model. And with two different points of view, one of them is the overall effect and the other is Individual effect.The research data using annual panel data with period of 2004 -2013.We find that using general method of moments is more significant and more reasonable. The results is that when overall multilateral exchange rate lag one period appreciating let Taiwan’s manufacturing industries exports volume reduce 1.019%.For Individual effect when Korea, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia , and United Kingdom multilateral exchange rate appreciating let Taiwan’s manufacturing industries exports volume increase 0.768%, 2.916%, 1.772%, 1.105%, 1.203%, 0.639%,and 8.965%。In contrast, when China, Japan, and United states multilateral exchange rate appreciating let Taiwan’s manufacturing industries exports volume reduce 1.624%,and 0.704%, 1.203% .

參考文獻


英文文獻
Hsing, H. M., & Savvides, A. (1996). Does a J-curve exist for Korea and Taiwan?. Open economies review, 7(2), 127-145.
Onafowora, O. (2003). Exchange rate and trade balance in East Asia: is there a J-curve. Economics bulletin, 5(18), 1-13.
Hsing, H. M. (2005). Re-examination of J-curve effect for Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Japan and the world economy, 17(1), 43-58.
Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., & Wang, Y. (2006). The J curve: China versus her trading partners. Bulletin of Economic Research, 58(4), 323-343.

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