本研究以結構-行為-績效(S-C-P)理論,探討供需與事件因素對建築業廠商行為與績效之影響,市場是供給導向或需求導向。針對台灣23個縣市由2000至2009年共計230個觀察值進行迴歸分析,發現房屋建築工程業指數、空屋數、人口數、購屋貸款、利率,對建照面積間具顯著影響。進一步進行聯合檢定(Joint Test),發現2000年至2009年建築產業供給面與需求面因素皆為影響建築執照面積的原因,而供給面模型的F值略高於需求面模形的F值(F=22.757>19.971),與歷年研究結果之比較,發現需求的力量有大幅提升,足見建商不是搶建,而是趨向提供市場期待的實質需求為主。並針對動態市場模型以二階段最小平方法模型(2SLS)來進行各變數(建照面積、使照面積、地價、空屋數)間之分析,發現地價與建照呈顯著負相關,顯示建商是理性投資之建築行為,空屋與建、使照皆呈顯著正相關,顯示供給面推動現象,地價與使照呈顯著正相關,也顯示供給面推動現象,地價與空屋數呈顯著正相關,亦顯示供給面推動現象。 亦針對效果分析(供需力量之衡量、空屋數、交易時間、價格),做進一步動態市場模型之探討,發現空屋數不論在簡單迴歸(靜態)或二階迴歸(動態)中,皆成顯著的正相關,說明空屋數越多,建案也越多。而交易時間有延長的趨勢。價格在未考量動態市場下,與建照呈顯著正相關,代表蓋越多,價格越高;但考量動態之市場下,則為顯著負相關,動態市場之下考量因素甚多,供需雙方皆會對其未來景氣做適度的考量,足以看出是其理性投資行為,亦符合當S>D時,建照面積會上升,而使照面積亦上升,會使得空屋數量增加,交易時間將拉長,而價格會因為供給過剩,在市場壓力下因而下降,因此推論2000至2009年市場,仍是由供給面所主導之供給擴張行為。
Based on the Structure-Conduct-Performance(S-C-P) model, this thesis analyzes the relationship between the market structure, the construction company’s behavior, and the operation performance. The samples are 23 county in Taiwan, during 2000 ~ 2009,and a total of 230 observations are examined. A regression analysis was used to examine, and the significant variable, Residential approvals is significant. Joint Test is found supply and demand force influence company’s behavior. The supply force is slightly larger than demand (F= 22.757> 19.971), although Joint Test is not significant. However demand a plays substantial role. The dynamic market model we use Two-Stage Leasts Quare Method, to test Residential approvals, Residential completions, Land prices and Vacant houses. Land prices all significant and negatively related to approvals, indicating construction company being rational. Vacant houses all significant and positively related to approvals, indicating being a supply-led expansion. Land prices all significant and positively related to Residential completions, indicating being a supply-led expansion. Land prices all significant and positively related to Vacant houses, also indicating supply-led expansion. An effect analysis(l.e. supply and demand forces, vacant houses, transaction time, price), in a dynamic market model examined. We found that vacant houses both in OLS regression (static) or 2SLS regression (dynamic), is a significant and positively related to approvals, indicating builder still constructs, although there are many vacant houses. The transaction time is still long. Prices dynamic market model shows significant and negatively related to approvals, dynamic market when S>D, the approvals will increase, completions also rise, vacant houses will increas, the transaction time will increase, too. While the prices will drop. Because of oversupply in the market, suggesting that the construction market is dominated by the supply side, during 2000~2009.