透過您的圖書館登入
IP:18.222.69.152
  • 學位論文

改良式定時定額投資法-限時限額加碼停利

Enhanced Dollar-Cost-Averaging - an improvement for current mutual fund investment strategy

指導教授 : 沈中華
若您是本文的作者,可授權文章由華藝線上圖書館中協助推廣。

摘要


共同基金是許多投資人喜愛的理財工具,其中定期定額方式更多數人在投資共同基金時考慮選擇之主流方式;而定期定額受歡迎之原因,除了透過小額定期扣款的機制可達成類似零存整付的強迫儲蓄功能外,定期定額投資不需要考慮進場時機,有效降低投資人對於做出錯誤投資決策的焦慮心理,亦可降低購買成本及風險,更重要的是投資時間越長,投資人越可享受時間的複利效果。 但本研究透過模擬定期定額投資台灣加權股價指數與其他共同基金的結果,證實多數投資人透過定期定額投資通常無法得到該基金所宣稱的獲利,同時在沒有適當機制管理定期定額投資的情況下,長時間定期定額投資的結果與投資人原先期待可以累積的財富有相當大的落差。而投資人對於定期定額投資的信心,事實上也受到投資過程中,投資部位所遭遇的損失幅度與其持續期間之影響,但一般投資人通常僅了解所投資基金過去的績效,並不會了解在投資之後可能須要忍受的最大損失程度,進而也影響了投資人在市場下跌時繼續堅持定期定額投資之意願。 本研究認為現有定期定額投資方式有其隱含的缺陷,譬如忽略了投資人投資生命與投資資本有限的事實,對於如何獲利缺乏明確的指引,同時也沒有可靠的方法協助投資人度過市場下跌的危機。故本研究重點在於提出改良式之定期定額投資方式,透過限時、限額、加碼、停利之核心概念,建構投資人可重覆執行之投資策略;主要在有限資本與時間的考量下,提高資金利用之效率,避免投資人因過早投入太多資金而造成資金短缺被迫須終止投資計畫,在市場下跌時積極增加投資部位並在適當時機停利,以確保投資期間累積之獲利可以真正實現,進而提升共同基金之投資績效。本研究以股票型基金進行模擬投資測試結果,證實改良式定期定額方式之內部投資報酬率均優於定期定額投資。

並列摘要


Among the various financial instruments available in the market nowadays, mutual fund has become one of the most well-know and preferred investment choice for investors to manage their wealth. By investing in mutual fund, investors could enjoy the benefits of portfolio diversification, high liquidity of investment position, and professional management. Meanwhile, other factors such as the forceful marketing by banks, securities investment trust/consulting enterprises (SITE & SICE) or even financial consultants, as well as the convenient mechanism of application and redemption channel also contribute to the popularity of mutual fund investment. Two main strategies are normally utilized in the mutual funds investment, Lump-Sum (LS) and Dollar-Cost-Averaging (DCA) strategy. Though the debate over which one has superior performance lingers for a long time and literatures in late period seem to prove that LS strategy could perform better, it’s undeniable that DCA is the mainstream strategy of mutual fund investment. Several reasons could explain why DCA becomes investors’ favorite investing strategy. First, the mechanism of regular deduction at agreed period resembles the concept of club deposit and it facilitates to achieve the forced saving plans. Second, monthly (or other regular intervals) contribution avoid the market-timing problem and also lessen the anxiety of making investment decisions. Then, based on the perception from most investors, DCA strategy could average the cost, reduce the investing risk, and the investing position could enjoy the power of compound interest over the long run. However, the generally accepted concept that investors could make profit or accumulate expected wealth simply by following current DCA strategy is questionable. According to the simulation results in this study, it proves that the mechanism of current DCA strategy is not sufficient to help investors to make profit, and it is also not an appropriate investing toll for long-term investment without proper management. When investor decides to utilize DCA to invest in mutual funds, the information he will receive usually is the fund performance in the past. But investors is totally unaware of the fact that before his investing portfolio could make expected profit, to what degree the volatility he needs to tolerate? Meaning what’s the maximum investment loss he might need to put up with? And how long will the investment loss last? These are important factors to impact investor’s attitude toward his investing plan and also affect investor’s faith to stick to the strategy, which happens to be the key to the success of DCA strategy. By simulating DCA in Taiwan Weighted Stock Index, this study believes that current DCA strategy contains some fallacy conception, such as negligence about the limits of investing life and capital constraints, lacking of clear method to realize profit, and being trapped in the bear market. To improve the investing strategy in mutual fund investment under the purpose of making profit, this study suggests the Enhanced Dollar-Cost-Averaging (EDCA®) strategy to make up for the deficiencies in current mechanism. Briefly speaking, EDCA requires investors to weight the investing duration and the available capital before deciding the monthly deduction amount. Then, sticking to the investing plan and increasing the monthly deduction amount in the bear market are crucial to accumulate investing position quickly and further lower the average cost. At last, redeeming the portfolio position at the set stop gain point is the key to the success of EDCA, since it prevents the profit from disappearing with market volatility and facilitates to accumulate wealth over the long run. This study utilizes historical data of different mutual funds to simulate the investing result between DCA and EDCA strategy and the results shows that regardless of the performance of individual mutual fund, EDCA does outperform DCA.

參考文獻


蕭信宏(2008) “投資定時定額策略與經濟指標選取之關係研究-以台灣股票型共同基金為例” 台北大學企業管理研究所學位論文。
謝依芳(2007) “共同基金扣款時機、投資策略與報酬率關係之研究” 元智大學資訊管理研究所學位論文。
傅茗蘭(2009)”共同基金投資法-單筆與定期定額比較” 臺灣大學財務金融學研究所學位論文。
薛品嶸(2009)”設置停損或停利對投資者行為之影響” 臺灣大學財務金融學研究所學位論文。
吳耀邦(2010) “ 從台股指數及台灣景氣信號分數判讀共同基金分期及分額投資之言就” 臺灣大學財務金融組學位論文。

被引用紀錄


王惠玲(2017)。共同基金投資策略與加權股價指數趨勢之探討〔碩士論文,朝陽科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0078-2712201714435240

延伸閱讀