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  • 學位論文

東亞航班延誤影響因素:機場、航線及網絡

Determinants of Flight Delays in East Asia: Airport, Route, and Network

指導教授 : 林楨家
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摘要


近十年來東亞的民用航空運量急遽成長,而此地區的航班延誤情形也甚為嚴重。惟在學術上,過去探討航班影響因素之文獻多集中於北美及歐洲區域,東亞則幾乎付之闕如;另外,現有文獻多探討機場或航線面向之影響因素,而較少探討網絡面向影響因素,亦即「連結機場」之可能影響。 本研究之目的為探討東亞航班延誤之影響因素,除了現有文獻有探討的機場與航線影響因素,亦探討與起迄機場直接相連之連結機場之影響,以納入網絡之觀點。本研究使用318個東亞機場間4,611條航線,於2017年下半年之航班資料,採用追蹤資料迴歸模型,以航線之日平均航班到達延誤為應變數,並以三面向變數及控制變數為自變數,分析三面向變數對東亞航班延誤之影響。 研究發現在機場面向,過去文獻所發現的延誤內化和樞紐效應並未出現於東亞機場;航線面向變數則在不同國家或類型的航線而有不同的影響,競爭-服務品質等假說並不全然適用於東亞航線;網絡面向變數確實顯著影響航班延誤。上述發現不僅顯示北美及歐洲的經驗與理論轉移到東亞的侷限性,同時也補足航班延誤影響因素之理論缺口,並且提供東亞機場擁擠稅之規劃建議,以及作為航空公司航班調派等營運之參考。

關鍵字

航班延誤 機場 航線 網絡 追蹤資料分析

並列摘要


In the last decade, air traffic volume in East Asia has increased rapidly, and flights in the region suffer from severe delays. Nevertheless, most previous studies on flight delay determinants were conducted in North America and Europe, and very few of them were based on East Asia. Furthermore, previous research focused on such determinants from airport and route perspectives and disregarded the network perspective (i.e., influence of “connected airports”). This study aims to explore the determinants of flight delays in East Asia, and it covers not only airport and route determinants explored in previous research but also those regarding directly connected airports to include the network perspective. This study adopts panel data regression models to verify how the variables of the three perspectives influence flight delays in East Asia. The flight data of 4,611 routes among 318 airports in the second half of 2017 are used. The daily average arrival delay of routes is employed as the dependent variable, and three perspective and control variables are utilized as independent variables. The empirical findings indicate that from the airport perspective, congestion internalization and the “hubness” effect suggested in previous research do not exist in East Asia. The route variables affect delays in various countries and route types differently, and connected airports are crucial determinants of flight delays in East Asia. These findings imply that the experiences of and theories from North America and Europe are inapplicable in explaining flight delays in East Asia. This study not only addresses the gap in existing literature but also provides a meaningful basis for the establishment of airport congestion tax, aircraft deployment, and other operational carrier strategies for East Asia.

並列關鍵字

flight delay airport route network panel data analysis

參考文獻


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