Oceanography The Official Magazine of
The Oceanography Society
Volume 30 Issue 01

View Issue TOC
Volume 30, No. 1
Pages 82 - 89

OpenAccess

Winter 2015/16: A Turning Point in ENSO-Based Seasonal Forecasts

By Judah Cohen , Karl Pfeiffer, and Jennifer Francis  
Jump to
Article Abstract Citation References Copyright & Usage
Article Abstract

The ocean-atmosphere coupled mode known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is considered the dominant mode of global climate variability and is the cornerstone of operational seasonal climate forecasts issued worldwide. Producing accurate seasonal forecasts remains a challenge, but with a record-strong El Niño in the fall and winter of 2015/16, winter seasonal predictions should have been afforded a rare opportunity to showcase forecast accuracy, especially across the North American continent. However, winter 2015/16 forecasts are not noteworthy for their success but rather for their flaws. The inability of the global climate models to predict large-scale climate anomalies likely results from the models’ over-sensitivity to tropical forcing. We argue that Arctic influences were also important in causing the observed weather patterns of winter 2015/16, in particular, diminished Arctic sea ice cover, extreme warm Arctic temperatures, and extensive Siberian snow cover. The weak response of the models to Arctic forcing contributed to seasonal forecast errors. To improve seasonal climate forecasts, we recommend complementing the influence of the tropical ocean with contributions from Arctic factors. 

Citation

Cohen, J., K. Pfeiffer, and J. Francis. 2017. Winter 2015/16: A turning point in ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. Oceanography 30(1):82–89, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2017.115.

References

Allen, R.J., and C.S. Zender. 2011. Forcing of the Arctic Oscillation by Eurasian snow cover. Journal of Climate 24:6,528–6,539, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4157.1.

Barnston, A.G., A. Leetmaa, V.E. Kousky, R.E. Livezey, E. O’Lenic, H. van den Dool, A.J. Wagner, and D.A. Unger. 1999. NCEP forecasts of the El Niño of 1997–98 and its US impacts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80:1,829–1,852, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<1829:​NFOTEN>2.0.CO;2

Barnston, A.G., M.K. Tippett, M.L. L’Heureux, S. Li, and D.G. DeWitt. 2012. Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002–11: Is our capability increasing? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93:631–651, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1.

Brands, S., R. Manzanas, J.M. Gutiérrez, and J. Cohen. 2012. Seasonal predictability of wintertime precipitation in Europe using the snow advance index. Journal of Climate 25:4,023–4,028, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00083.1.

Brown, R.D., and C. Derksen. 2013. Is Eurasian October snow cover extent increasing? Environmental Research Letters 8:024006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024006.

Cohen, J. 2016. An observational analysis: Tropical relative to Arctic influence on mid-latitude weather in the era of Arctic amplification. Geophysical Research Letters 43:5,287–5,294, https://doi.org/​10.1002/2016GL069102.

Cohen, J., M. Barlow, P. Kushner, and K. Saito. 2007. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links with Eurasian land-surface variability. Journal of Climate 20:5,335–5,343, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1725.1.

Cohen, J., and D. Entekhabi. 1999. Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters 26:345–348, https://doi.org/10.1029/​1998GL900321.

Cohen, J., J. Furtado, J. Jones, M. Barlow, D. Whittleston, and D. Entekhabi. 2014a. Linking Siberian snow cover to precursors of stratospheric variability. Journal of Climate 27:5,422–5,432, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00779.1.

Cohen, J., and J. Jones. 2011. A new index for more accurate winter predictions. Geophysical Research Letters 38, L21701, https://doi.org/​10.1029/2011GL049626.

Cohen, J., J. Jones, J.C. Furtado, and E. Tziperman. 2013. Warm Arctic, cold continents: A common pattern related to Arctic sea ice melt, snow advance, and extreme winter weather. Oceanography 26(4):150–160, https://doi.org/​10.5670/oceanog.2013.70.

Cohen, J., and D. Rind. 1991. The effect of snow cover on the climate. Journal of Climate 4:689–706, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0689:​TEOSCO>2.0.CO;2.

Cohen, J., J. Screen, J.C. Furtado, M. Barlow, D. Whittelston, D. Coumou, J. Francis, K. Dethloff, D. Entekhabi, J. Overland, and J. Jones. 2014b. Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-​latitude weather. Nature Geoscience 7:627–637, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234.

Eade, R., D. Smith, A. Scaife, E. Wallace, N. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, and N. Robinson. 2014. Do seasonal-​to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world? Geophysical Research Letters 41:5,620–5,628, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061146

Feldstein, S.B., and S. Lee. 2014. Intraseasonal and interdecadal jet shifts in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of warm pool tropical convection and sea ice. Journal of Climate 27:6,497–6,518, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00057.1

Furtado, J.C., J.L. Cohen, A.H. Butler, E.E. Riddle, and A. Kumar. 2015. Eurasian snow cover variability, winter climate, and stratosphere-​troposphere coupling in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics 45:2,591–2,605, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2494-4.

Furtado, J.C., J. Cohen, and E. Tziperman. 2016. The combined impact of autumnal Arctic snow and sea ice covers on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation. Geophysical Research Letters 43:3,478–3,485, https://doi.org/10.1002/​2016GL068108.

Gramling, C. 2015. Arctic impact. Science 347:818–821, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.347.6224.818.

Hardiman, S.C., P.J. Kushner, and J. Cohen. 2008. Investigating the ability of general circulation models to capture the effects of Eurasian snow cover on winter climate. Journal of Geophysical Research 113, D21123, https://doi.org/10.1029/​2008JD010623.

Honda, M., J. Inue, and S. Yamane. 2009. Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L08707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037079.

Hoskins, B. 2013. The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem: A stimulus for our science. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139:573–584, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1991.

Ineson, S., and A.A. Scaife. 2009. The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Niño. Nature Geoscience 2:32–36, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo381.

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, and J. Cohen. 2012. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation. Tellus 64:11595, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595.

Janowiak, J., and P. Xie. 1999. CAMS–OPI: A global satellite-rain gauge merged product for real-time precipitation monitoring applications. Journal of Climate 12:3,335–3,342, https://doi.org/​10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<3335:COAGSR>​2.0.CO;2.

Kim, B.-M., S.-W. Son, S.-K. Min, J.-H. Jeong, S.-J. Kim, X. Zhang, T. Shim, and J.-H. Yoon. 2014. Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss. Nature Communications 5:4646, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5646.

Kintisch, E. 2014. Into the maelstrom. Science 344:250–253, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.344.6181.250.

Kirtman, B.P., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paulino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Pena Mendez, E. Becker, and others. 2014. The North American multimodel ensemble: Phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction; Phase-2 toward developing intraseasonal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95:585–601, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.

MacLachlan, C., A. Arribas, K.A. Peterson, A. Maidens, D. Fereday, A.A. Scaife, M. Gordon, M. Vellinga, A. Williams, R.E. Comer, and others. 2015. Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): A high-resolution seasonal forecast system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 141:107–108, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396.

Matthewman, N.J., J.G. Esler, A.J. Charlton-Perz, and L.M. Polvani. 2009. A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings: Part III. Polar vortex evolution and vertical structures. Journal of Climate 22:1,566–1,585, https://doi.org/10.1175/​2008JCLI2365.1.

McCusker, K.E., J.C. Fyfe, and M. Sigmond. 2016. Twenty-five winters of unexpected Eurasian cooling unlikely due to Arctic sea-ice loss. Nature Geoscience 9:838–842, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2820.

Met Office. 2015. 2016 global mean temperature forecast. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2015/global-temperature.

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2015. Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015–2016 winter weather. NOAA News, October 15, 2015, http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/101515-noaa-strong-el-nino-sets-the-stage-for-2015-2016-winter-weather.html.

Overland, J.E., K. Dethloff, J.A. Francis, R.J. Hall, E. Hanna, S.-J. Kim, J.A. Screen, T.G. Shepherd, and T. Vihma. 2016. Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic. Nature Climate Change 6:992–999, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3121.

Overland, J.E., K.R. Wood, and M. Wang. 2011. Warm Arctic–cold continents: Impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea. Polar Research 30:15787, https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v30i0.15787.

Palmer, T. 2014. Record-breaking winters and global climate change. Science 344:803–804, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1255147.

Ropelewski, C.F., and M.S. Halpert. 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 115:1,606–1,626, https://doi.org/​10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>​2.0.CO;2

Ropelewski, C.F., and M.S. Halpert. 1989. Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate 2:268–284, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<0268:PPAWTH>​2.0.CO;2

Saha, S., S. Moorthi, X. Wu, J. Wang, S. Nadiga, P. Tripp, D. Behringer, Y.-T. Hou, H. Chuang, M. Iredell, and others. 2014. The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. Journal of Climate 27:2,185–2,208, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1.

Scaife, A.A., A. Arribas, E. Blockley, A. Brookshaw, R.T. Clark, N. Dunstone, R. Eade, D. Fereday, C.K. Folland, M. Gordon, and others. 2014. Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters. Geophysical Research Letters 41:2,514–2,519, https://doi.org/​10.1002/2014GL059637.

Shepherd, T.G. 2016. Effects of a warming Arctic. Science 353:989–990, https://doi.org/10.1126/​science.aag2349.

Simon, J.M., L. Goddard, N.E. Graham, E. Yulaeva, L. Sun, and P.A. Arkin. 1999. The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80:1,853–1,873, https://doi.org/10.1175/​1520-0477(1999)080<1853:TISCPS>2.0.CO;2.

Stevens, B., and S. Bony. 2013. What are climate models missing? Science 340:1,053–1,054, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1237554

Sullivan, B.K. 2015. Siberian snow cover theory proves less than perfect this winter. Bloomberg, March 4, 2015, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/siberian-snow-cover-theory-proves-less-than-perfect-this-winter.

Sun, L., C. Deser, and R.A. Tomas. 2015. Mechanisms of stratospheric and tropospheric circulation response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. Journal of Climate 28(19):7,824–7,845, https://doi.org/​10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0169.1.

Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. Wallace. 1998. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophysical Research Letters 25:1,297–1,300, https://doi.org/​10.1029/98GL00950

Vihma, T. 2014. Effects of Arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate: A review. Surveys in Geophysics 35:1175, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0.

Wallace, J.M., I.M. Held, D.W.J. Thompson, K.E. Trenberth, and J.E. Walsh. 2014. Global warming and winter weather. Science 343:729–730, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.343.6172.729.

Copyright & Usage

This is an open access article made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format as long as users cite the materials appropriately, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate the changes that were made to the original content. Images, animations, videos, or other third-party material used in articles are included in the Creative Commons license unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If the material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission directly from the license holder to reproduce the material.