Supporting data for "Evaluating short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases among different epidemiological models under a Bayesian framework.""
Dataset type: Software, Bioinformatics
Data released on January 28, 2021
Li Q; Bedi T; Lehmann CU; Xiao G; Xie Y (2021): Supporting data for "Evaluating short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases among different epidemiological models under a Bayesian framework."" GigaScience Database. https://doi.org/10.5524/100863
Forecasting of COVID-19 cases daily and weekly has been one of the challenges posed to governments and the health sector globally. To facilitate informed public health decisions, the concerned parties rely on short-term daily projections generated via predictive modeling. We calibrate stochastic variants of growth models and the standard SIR model into one Bayesian framework to evaluate and compare their short term forecasts. We implement rolling-origin cross-validation to compare the short-term forecasting performance of the stochastic epidemiological models and an autoregressive moving average model across 20 countries that had the most confirmed COVID-19 cases as of August 22, 2020. None of the models proved to be a gold standard across all regions, while all outperformed the autoregressive moving average model in terms of the accuracy of forecast and interpretability.
Keywords:
Additional details
Read the peer-reviewed publication(s):
- Li, Q., Bedi, T., Lehmann, C. U., Xiao, G., & Xie, Y. (2021). Evaluating short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases among different epidemiological models under a Bayesian framework. GigaScience, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.1093/gigascience/giab009 (PubMed:33604654)
Additional information:
https://scicrunch.org/resolver/RRID:SCR_019291
https://bio.tools/bayesepimodels_webapp
https://qiwei.shinyapps.io/PredictCOVID19/
https://scicrunch.org/resolver/RRID:SCR_019292
https://bio.tools/bayesepimodels
Github links:
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Table SettingsFile Name | Description | Sample ID | Data Type | File Format | Size | Release Date | File Attributes | Download |
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Archival copy of the GitHub repository https://github.com/liqiwei2000/BayesEpiModels downloaded 15-Jan-2021. BayesEpiModels. This project is licensed under the GNU General Public License v3.0. Please refer to the GitHub repo for most recent updates. | GitHub archive | zip | 22.64 kB | 2021-01-16 | license: GNU General Public License v3.0 MD5 checksum: dc53fbe5fa4917e99c001f7d6761a030 |
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Readme | TEXT | 1.97 kB | 2021-01-28 | MD5 checksum: 06cacce5c0f0149375de871bd8eda12e |
Funding body | Awardee | Award ID | Comments |
---|---|---|---|
National Institutes of Health | Y Xie | R35GM136375 | |
National Institutes of Health | Y Xie & G Xiao | P30CA142543 | |
National Institutes of Health | Y Xie & G Xiao | P50CA70907 | |
National Institutes of Health | Y Xie | 1R01GM115473 | |
Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas | G Xiao | RP190107 | |
Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas | Y Xie | RP180805 | |
University of Texas at Dallas | G Xiao | Center for Disease Dynamics and Statistics | |
National Institutes of Health | G Xiao | 5R01CA152301 | |
National Institutes of Health | Y Xie | 1R01GM140012 |
Date | Action |
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January 28, 2021 | Dataset publish |
February 1, 2021 | Manuscript Link added : 10.1093/gigascience/giab009 |
March 3, 2021 | Title updated from : Supporting data for "Evaluating Short-term Forecasting among Different Epidemiological Models under a Bayesian Framework" |
November 1, 2021 | Manuscript Link updated : 10.1093/gigascience/giab009 |