Gentle Guidance Does it? Are Public Employment Service Recommendations Affecting Adjustment of IVET Capacities in Croatia?

Since 2010 the Croatian Employment Service (CES) annually produces detailed regional “Recommendations for enrolment and granting policy in education”.  Schools, Counties and Ministry of Education are to consider those recommendations in their planning, but no compliance mechanism was mandated for this labour market information input. This paper analytically explores the way in which the education system responds to outside signals by using a course-school-year panel of entry places and actual enrolments in publicly-funded VET in Croatia in 2013-2021 period, and respective set of county-level recommendations. We estimate whether either the observed changes in administratively defined places in VET courses, or actual enrolment are responsive to recommendations. Both descriptive table and analytical models indicate a certain level of responsiveness of education system stakeholders to recommendations. However, it is a weak one, with institutions often adjusting capacities in opposite direction, with demographics and unfilled capacities playing a greater role in determining change. The direct effect of recommendations on enrolment demand was not identified. Such findings are coherent with a statist skill production regime with corporatism at the margin, and