Abstract
In Experiment 1, subjects estimated (1) the mean of a random sample of 10 scores consisting of 9 unknown scores and 1 known score that was divergent from the population mean and (2) the mean of the 9 unknown scores. The modal answer (about 40% of the responses) for both sample means was the population mean. The results extend the work of Tversky and Kahneman (1971) by demonstrating that subjects hold a passive, descriptive view of random sampling rather than an active-balancing model. This result was explored further in in-depth interviews (Experiment (2), wherein subjects solved the problem while explaining their reasoning. The interview data replicated Experiment 1 and further showed: (1) that subjects’ solutions were fairly stable—when presented with alternative solutions, including the correct one, few subjects changed their answers; (2) little evidence of a balancing mechanism; and (3) that acceptance of both means as 400 is largely a result of the perceived unpredictability of “random samples.”
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). What features make samples seem representative?Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance,6, 578–589.
Hays, W. L. (1981).Statistics (3rd ed.). New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
Freedman, D., Pisani, R., &Purves, R. (1978).Statistics. New York: Norton.
Kahneman, V., &Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness.Cognitive Psychology,3, 430–454.
Tversky, A., &Kahneman, D. (1971). The belief in the law of small numbers.Psychological Bulletin,76, 105–110.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
This research was supported by Research Grants SED-8016567 and SED-8113323 from the National Science Foundation.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pollatsek, A., Konold, C.E., Well, A.D. et al. Beliefs underlying random sampling. Memory & Cognition 12, 395–401 (1984). https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03198300
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03198300