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글로벌 불확실성의 확산과 중국발 위기론의 실제 -비전형적 통화정책의 부작용을 중심으로-
Growing Global Uncertainty and the True Aspect of China Risk -Understanding the Global Effects of the Unconventional Monetary Polices-
김민수 ( Mihnsoo Kim )
DOI 10.36527/KCSSS.15.2.1
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2018-300-000356103

The world economy is experiencing an unprecedented disparity in the most fundamental economic principle that used to describe the basic human value and action. According to the theory of time preference, interest rate cannot be zero because that will give no incentive for saving. And without saving, there can be no intermediation for investment, either. However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, the central banks of major developed countries like U.S., Japan, Eurozone and England have continuously implemented ZIRP and even NIRP on top of their quantitative easing policies in order to backstop the financial system from melting down. Nevertheless, this kind of unconventional monetary policies not only distorted the basic functions of market economy, but also impeded the natural process of recovery through restructuring and reallocation due to the artificial interest rates and easy money policies. Therefore, on the contrary to its intention, the UMP is turning out to be a problem instead of being a solution for the world economy since it has only facilitated the debt bubble and the asset market bubbles to expand rapidly without much productivity improvement or economic growth. And this is now causing more uncertainties in the world economy as the mounting debts are becoming a major risk to the stability of the global financial system. So, the next financial crisis, when it happens, is going to be much bigger in scale and wider in scope with more devastating effects on the world economy. Especially, the escalated debt problem can even bring down the fiat currency in the countries where the crisis hits since these bubbles have been inflated by the monetary policies of the central banks across the world. In light of this understanding, this paper tries to reveal the true aspect of China risk from the global perspective. It begins by explaining how the ZIRP and NIRP is distorting the market economy and how the UMP is abusing the properties of fiat currency. Then, it illustrates how the world economy including China is facing the growing uncertainties that are caused by the adverse effects of these policies.

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