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IFRS 의무도입 후 이익 정보력이 재무분석가의 이익예측의 정확성에 미치는 영향
The Effect of the Information Content of Earnings after Mandatory IFRS Adoption on Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy
박종일 ( Jong-il Park )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2018-300-004054568
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본 연구는 IFRS 의무도입 이후에 산출된 보고이익 정보력이 이전의 경우보다 재무분석가 측면에서 이익예측의 정확성을 더 향상시키는지를 규명하는데 있다. 또한 앞서의 관계가 감사인의 감사 노력, 외부지배구조 및 재무보고의 질의 영향에 따라 차별적인지와 시장유형에 따라 다른지도 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 이익 수준과 IFRS 도입 전후기간의 교차항을 변수로 이용하여 재무분석가의 이익예측의 정확성, 편의 및 분산과의 관계를 알아보았다. 분석기간은 IFRS 의무도입 전후의 각 5년간(2006년부터 2015년까지)이고, 표본은 유가증권 및 코스닥기업을 대상으로 7,116개 기업/연 자료가 이용되었다. 실증결과는 첫째, IFRS 도입 이후에 산출된 보고이익을 이용한 재무분석가의 이익예측치의 정확성이 도입 이전과 비교할 때 더 증가되었고, 낙관적인 편의의 성향은 낮아졌으며, 이익예측의 분산은 줄어든 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 감사인의 감사노력(비정상 감사시간), 외부지배구조(외국인투자지분율) 및 재무보고의 질(발생액의 질) 수준에 따라 표본을 나누어 분석하더라도 모두 IFRS 도입 이후가 이전보다 보고이익을 이용한 재무분석가들의 이익예측의 정확성이 더 높고, 낙관적인 편의의 성향은 낮아졌다. 마지막으로, 시장유형별로 표본을 나누어 분석하면 앞서의 결과들은 주로 코스닥기업보다는 유가증권기업일 때 더 뚜렷한 결과를 보였다. 이상을 종합하면, 본 연구는 IFRS 의무도입 이후가 이전과 비교해 재무분석가의 정보환경을 개선시켜 이익 정보력을 통한 재무분석가의 이익예측의 정확성이 증가되었음을 보여주었다는데 의미가 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 IFRS의 도입 효과를 분석한 관련연구에 새로운 증거를 제공하며, 또한 IFRS 도입의 효과성에 관심이 있는 실무계, 회계기준제정기관, 규제당국 및 정책입안자에게 시사점을 제공한다. 아울러 재무분석가의 이익예측 정보는 자본시장의 투자자의 의사결정에도 적지 않은 영향을 미친다는 점을 감안할 때 본 연구는 투자자들에게도 유용한 정보를 제공한다.

This study empirically examines whether the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption, suggesting a association between the financial impact on earnings of the changes to IFRS from GAAP and financial analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy. In other words, this paper predict that the predictability of earnings in the post-IFRS periods are more informative than those of earnings in the pre-IFRS periods are associated with lower forecast errors and dispersion in analyst forecasts. Because I expect that the accuracy of analyst forecasts is related to the accuracy of financial statement-based forecasts and, therefore, that the improvement in analysts’ forecast accuracy around mandatory IFRS adoption is associated with the improvement in the accuracy of earnings on financial reports with firm-level. This relation reflects a fundamental mechanism that could explain the general change in analysts’ earnings forecast around mandatory IFRS adoption. As the relationship, this study also examines whether the adoption effect likely varies with firmlevel incentives for auditor effort, foreign investor ownership, and accruals quality. Furthermore, this study partition the sample into market type and test whether the relationship earlier is different for KOSPI versus KOSDAQ listed firms. On the other hand, prior research examine the effects of mandatory IFRS adoption on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts (e.g., Nam 2015;Houqe et al. 2014;Miralles and Sanabria 2014;Horton et al. 2013;Cotter et al. 2012;Byard et al. 2011;Tan et al. 2011 etc.) Unlike previous studies, this paper differs in that I focus on the informational power of earnings related to analysts’ earnings forecasts errors between the pre-IFRS and post-IFRS periods. For instance, financial analysts are among the major and most intensive users of firms’ financial reports, as they are required to predict a firm’s fundamental value. Furthermore, analysts use firms’ previous financial reports, particularly earnings information, to predict future earnings. Therefore, intuitively, the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts is directly correlated to the quality of financial reports and the information environment(Horton et al. 2013;Houqe et al. 2014). Therefore, I test that the effects of changes in the informational power of earnings on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts after the mandatory IFRS adoption. Thus, this paper extend prior studies about properties of analyst forecasts in both the national GAAP and IFRS setting in the period before and after mandatory IFRS adoption. To test the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption, test variable in model to estimate the incremental effect of the informational power of earnings in the post-IFRS period is an interaction of IFRS and earnings (i.e., earnings per share deflated by the price, hereafter EL), where IFRS is an indicator variable that equals one for the post-IFRS period (2011-2015) and zero for the pre-IFRS period (2006-2010). The dependent variable is analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy, in particular, this study capture the properties of analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy using absolute forecast errors, forecast errors (i.e., optimistic or pessimistic bias), and forecast dispersion, where smaller absolute forecast errors, smaller optimistic bias, and smaller forecast dispersion generally indicates a richer information environment. The sample covers KOSPI and KOSDAQ listed firms with available data in non-financial industries with fiscal year-end based on the dependent variable (test variable) from 2007 to 2016 (from 2006 to 2015). The final samples includes 7,116 firm-year observations with available data for analyst’ earnings forecast. The empirical findings of this study are following. First, after controlling for several factors that affect analyst’ forecast errors, I find that the coefficient on interaction term between IFRS and EL (IFRS*EL) is significantly negative, when the dependent variable is absolute forecast errors, forecast errors, and forecast dispersion, respectively. Consistent with hypothesis, which indicating that analysts’ forecast on earnings’ informational power becomes more accurate analyst’ earnings forecasts, less optimistically biased forecasts, and smaller forecast dispersion after mandatory IFRS adoption. Second, when I also divided the full samples into positive abnormal audit hours vs. negative abnormal audit hours subsamples, or high foreign investor ownership vs. low foreign investor ownership subsamples, and high accruals quality vs. low accruals quality subsamples according to the median level, I find that a negative and significant relation between an interaction of IFRS*EL and analysts’ absolute forecast errors and forecast dispersion, regardless of high or low auditor effort samples, or high or low foreign investor ownership samples, and high or low accruals quality subsamples. Thus, the results of this study are not sensitive to auditor additional effort, external corporate governance, accruals quality conditioned on firm-level reporting incentives, I find similar results earlier. Therefore, this results suggest that the impact mandatory IFRS adoption itself rather than firm-level with stronger reporting incentives (i.e., higher-quality audit, a larger proportion of foreign investor ownership, and the level of higher financial reporting) is associated with a change in the quality of analysts’ information environment. Finally, in the additional analysis when I classify sample into KOSPI versus KOSDAQ firms, this study find that a significantly negative relation between analyst’ earnings forecast error and IFRS*EL is more pronounced among KOPSI samples, thus leading to a greater improvement in analysts’ information environment for these firms. Overall, the evidence from this study shows a significant reduction in analysts’ earnings forecast errors and dispersion after mandatory IFRS adoption. Specifically, this study show that the improvement in analyst’s earnings forecast accuracy is associated with the improvement in the Informational power of earnings with financial reports around IFRS adoption and that the association between the improvement in analysts’ forecast accuracy and the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption is more pronounced KOPSI samples. Meanwhile, this study is the first to provide direct evidence on the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption, suggesting a association between reported earnings-based measure of the changes to IFRS from GAAP and financial analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy model. Therefore, the results of this study may be of interest to accounting standard setters, policy makers, regulators and practitioners in evaluating the costs and benefits of mandatory IFRS adoption and to financial statement users who wish to understand the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption. As well as, the findings of this study makes contributions to the existing literature on the impact of mandatory IFRS adoption on analysts’ forecasts accuracy.

Ⅰ. 서 론
Ⅱ. 선행연구의 검토 및 가설의 설정
Ⅲ. 연구설계 및 표본의 선정
Ⅳ. 실증분석결과
Ⅴ. 결 론
참고문헌
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