Demand Forecasting for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines Considering Emission Regulations
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Related Literature
2.1. Technology Diffusion Model
2.2. HDDE Emission Regulations
- NOx limits: 8.0 g/kWh in EURO 1, 7.0 g/kWh in EURO 2, 5.0 g/kWh in EURO 3, 3.5 g/kWh in EURO 4, 2.0 g/kWh in EURO 5, and 0.4 g/kWh in EURO 6.
- CO limits: 4.5 g/kWh in EURO 1, 4.0 g/kWh in EURO 2, 2.1 g/kWh in EURO 3, and 1.5 g/kWh in EURO 4–6.
- HC limits: 1.1 g/kWh in EURO 1–2, 0.66 g/kWh in EURO 3, 0.46 g/kWh in EURO 4–5, and 0.13 g/kWh in EURO 6.
- PM limits: 0.61 g/kWh in EURO 1, 0.15 g/kWh in EURO 2, 0.13 g/kWh in EURO 3, 0.02 g/kWh in EURO 4–5, and 0.01 g/kWh in EURO 6.
3. New Model
3.1. HDDE Sales Data
3.2. Proposed Model
- is the i-th generation’s sales at time t;
- is the fraction of the ultimate potential of the i-th generation that has been adopted at time t;
- is the probability distribution function of adoption time t of the i-th generation;
- is the market’s maximum sales per unit life period of the i-th generation;
- is the introduction time of the i-th generation;
- t is the accumulated quarter from ;
- p is the coefficient of innovation; and
- q is the coefficient of imitation.
- is the fraction of the ultimate potential of the i-th generation technology that has decreased due to the attraction of the (i + 1)-th generation technology at time t before the (i + 1)-th generation technology release date;
- is the quarter in which news of the regulation requiring the (i + 1)-th generation technology is released;
- is the phase-out quarter of the i-th generation technology due to the regulation;
- is the inverse of the degree of expected attraction of the (i + 1)-th generation technology; and
- is the market share of the company’s i-th generation product.
- is the time when the regulation associated with the i-th generation is imposed;
- is the portion of consumed at time t;
- is the discount rate for the i-th generation product;
- is a sensitivity parameter of the sales price; and
- is the promotion period.
3.3. Scenario Analysis
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Emission Regulation | Effective Period | NOx | NMHC | CO | HC | PM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EURO 3 | January 2003–December 2005 | 5.0 | - | 2.1 | 0.66 | 0.10 0.13 a |
EURO 4 | January 2006–August 2008 | 3.5 | - | 1.5 | 0.46 | 0.02 |
EURO 5 | September 2009–December 2013 | 2.0 | - | 1.5 | 0.46 | 0.02 |
EURO 6 | January 2014–Present | 0.4 | - | 1.5 | 0.13 | 0.01 |
Tier 2 b | January 2005–December 2008 | NOx + NMHC ≤ 6.6 | 3.5 | - | 0.2 | |
Tier 3 b | January 2009–December 2014 | NOx + NMHC ≤ 4.0 | 3.5 | - | 0.2 | |
Tier 4 b | January 2015–Present | 0.4 | 0.19 | 3.5 | - | 0.02 |
m1 | p1 | q1 | MS1 | m2 | p2 | q2 | MS2 | m3 | p3 | q3 | MS3 | δ | Gi | ρ | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario 1 | 200,000 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 8 | 0.10 | 4 |
Scenario 2 | 200,000 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 8 | 0.90 | 4 |
Scenario 3 | 200,000 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 8 | 0.10 | 4 |
Scenario 4 | 200,000 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 8 | 0.90 | 4 |
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Kim, Y.S.; Han, E.J.; Sohn, S.Y. Demand Forecasting for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines Considering Emission Regulations. Sustainability 2017, 9, 166. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9020166
Kim YS, Han EJ, Sohn SY. Demand Forecasting for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines Considering Emission Regulations. Sustainability. 2017; 9(2):166. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9020166
Chicago/Turabian StyleKim, Yoon Seong, Eun Jin Han, and So Young Sohn. 2017. "Demand Forecasting for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines Considering Emission Regulations" Sustainability 9, no. 2: 166. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9020166