본 연구는 현 정부가 추진하려하는 신(新)북방경제협력의 경제적 파급효과를 분석하고 이를 바탕으로 한 정책적 시사점을 도출하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 북방경제협력위원회가 제시한 16개 중점과제를 토대로 10개 시나리오를 구축하여 신(新)북방경제협력의 경제적 파급효과를 도출했다.
분석 결과 모든 대상 사업에서 시행 전 대비 0.57~0.77%의 GDP가 증가하는 것으로 분석되었고, 총 소비는 0.74~1.88% 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 효과가 가장 큰 사업은 산업단지 조성 사업으로 여러 산업들에 대한 고른 지원이 높은 효과를 유발한 것으로 풀이된다. 그러나 물류망 구축 사업을 제외한 모든 사업에서 0.5~2.4%의 국내 민간투자를 줄이는 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 북방진출 사업이 기본적으로 해외진출 사업이므로, 기업들의 해외진출이 국내 민간투자를 줄이는 효과를 유발하게 될 수 있음을 시사한다. 다만 물류망 구축 사업의 경우 물동량 증가가 국내 민간투자도 활성화 할 수 있는 것으로 해석된다.
본 연구의 정책적 시사점은 첫째, 본 연구결과는 대북제재가 완화되어 중국이나 러시아와의 삼각협력체제 구축이 가능하면, 북방경제협력은 우리 경제에 긍정적 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 의미한다. 둘째, 중국과 러시아 중에서 러시아를 대상으로 한 정책의 파급효과가 더 크게 나타났는데, 이는 기존 우리나라와의 교역 비중이 낮은 국가 중 잠재력이 큰 국가와의 경제협력이 기존 우리나라와 교역 비중이 높은 국가와의 협력보다 더 큰 파급효과를 미칠 수 있음을 시사한다. 셋째, 친환경 협력과 보건의료협력의 경제적 파급효과가 비교적 낮게 나타났다. 이는 두 산업의 구조적 문제에 기인한다. 정부는 북방경제협력 사업 선정 시 국내 산업의 구조적 문제를 함께 해결하기 위해 노력을 기울여야 할 것이다.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic effects of the new northern economic cooperation that the current government intends to pursue, and to derive policy implications based on this. The economic ripple effect of the new Northern Economic Cooperation was derived by establishing 10 scenarios based on the 16 key tasks proposed by the Northern Economic Cooperation Committee. As a result, GDP of 0.57 ~ 0.77% is increased in all target projects compared to before implementation, and total consumption is 0.74 ~ 1.88%. The most effective project is the industrial complex creation project, which is thought to be caused by the even support of various industries. However, in all projects except logistics network establishment, it was found to have an effect of reducing domestic private investment by 0.5 ~ 2.4%. This implies that the entry into the North is basically an overseas entry, and therefore, companies' overseas entry may lead to the effect of reducing domestic private investment. However, in the case of logistics network construction, the increase in cargo volume is expected to boost domestic private investment. The policy implications of this study are as follows. First, the results of this study imply that if economic sanctions are imposed on North Korea and a triangular cooperation system with China or Russia is possible, the North Korean economic cooperation can have a positive effect on our economy. Second, among China and Russia, the ripple effect of the policy targeting Russia was greater, which means that economic cooperation with the countries with high potential among the countries with low trade ratio with the existing countries has high It may also have a greater ripple effect than cooperation. Third, the economic ripple effect of eco-friendly cooperation and health care cooperation was relatively low. This is due to structural problems in both industries. The government should make an effort to solve the structural problems of domestic industry when selecting the Northern Economic Cooperation Project.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic effects of the new northern economic cooperation that the current government intends to pursue, and to derive policy implications based on this. The economic ripple effect of the new Northern Economic Cooperation was derived by establishing 10 scenarios based on the 16 key tasks proposed by the Northern Economic Cooperation Committee. As a result, GDP of 0.57 ~ 0.77% is increased in all target projects compared to before implementation, and total consumption is 0.74 ~ 1.88%. The most effective project is the industrial complex creation project, which is thought to be caused by the even support of various industries. However, in all projects except logistics network establishment, it was found to have an effect of reducing domestic private investment by 0.5 ~ 2.4%. This implies that the entry into the North is basically an overseas entry, and therefore, companies' overseas entry may lead to the effect of reducing domestic private investment. However, in the case of logistics network construction, the increase in cargo volume is expected to boost domestic private investment. The policy implications of this study are as follows. First, the results of this study imply that if economic sanctions are imposed on North Korea and a triangular cooperation system with China or Russia is possible, the North Korean economic cooperation can have a positive effect on our economy. Second, among China and Russia, the ripple effect of the policy targeting Russia was greater, which means that economic cooperation with the countries with high potential among the countries with low trade ratio with the existing countries has high It may also have a greater ripple effect than cooperation. Third, the economic ripple effect of eco-friendly cooperation and health care cooperation was relatively low. This is due to structural problems in both industries. The government should make an effort to solve the structural problems of domestic industry when selecting the Northern Economic Cooperation Project.
