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天然災害對台灣國有森林遊樂區遊客人數之影響

Influences of Natural Disasters on Tourist Arrivals at National Forest Recreation Areas in Taiwan

摘要


瞭解遊客人數特性爲經營上重要的一環,台灣森林遊樂區多地處山區,因此交通以及天候狀況等是影響遊客數的重要原因之一;台灣因地處環太平洋地震帶,且位於颱風路徑要衝,颱風所挾帶的豐沛雨量常造成山區嚴重災害,也對森林遊樂區的營運造成影響,此類的災害可視爲一種對於森林遊樂區短期的干擾,而天然災害的影響通常直接反應在遊客人數的波動上。本研究運用對應分析(Correspond Analysis, CA)探討各遊樂區的遊客人數特性,根據各森林遊樂區遊客人數之變化可略分爲四種類型,分別爲遊客人數漸趨下滑,且逐年遊客人數量波動較大或逐年的遊客人數量波動較平緩;以及遊客人數漸趨上升,且遊客人數量波動較大或逐年的遊客人數量波動爲相對持平的狀態。此外利用介入模型針對中部地區受921集集大地震影響較深之遊樂區遊客人數進行預測,探討天然災害對森林遊樂區遊客人數造成的影響,若能預估變動因子影響遊客人數的時間長度,即可透過遊客人數的預測式推估遊樂區受外力影響所造成的遊客人數增加或損失,期能更加瞭解天然災害帶來的影響,並提供日後管理經營的方針。

並列摘要


Ecotourism is becoming increasingly prevalent nowadays. Forest recreation activity a kind of ecotourism, is popular in Taiwan. Tourist arrivals are often a crucial indicator for a recreation area. and knowing the characteristics of tourist arrivals is essential for managers Due to the locations of forest areas that are often remote and in mountainous area, Tourist arrivals are influenced by many factors such as characteristics of the recreation area, transportation accessibility and weather. Taiwan is located on the Pacific Ring of Fire and the major juncture of typhoon path in Pacific Northwest. Because of the special geographic environment, earthquakes and great precipitation accompanied by typhoons are the major natural disasters to Taiwan. These natural disasters are a kind of short-term change and often affect tourist arrivals directly. This study analyzed the characteristic of tourist arrivals to understand different attributes of recreation areas by correspondence analysis and then analyzed the effect of natural disasters on tourist arrivals by intervention model. Through the results, managers can understand the influence of natural disasters well and make proper plans for the future management.

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