透過您的圖書館登入
IP:18.118.184.237
  • 期刊

Identifying Turning Points and Business Cycles in Taiwan: A Multivariate Dynamic Markov-Switching Factor Model Approach

臺灣景氣循環轉折點之認定:多變量動態馬可夫轉換單因子模型之應用

摘要


本文應用多變量動態馬可夫轉換單因子模型,對台灣重要總體經濟變數如國內生產毛額、消費、投資以及出口進行估計,探討台灣經濟景氣循環轉折點之認定及預測。多變量動態馬可夫轉換單因子模型除了能夠刻劃景氣循環具有非對稱的特質外,也同時掌握景氣循環的另一重要特性:「重要總體經濟變數如消費、投資偏離時間趨勢的波動與國內生產毛額波動共同變動的現象」,這是單變量馬可夫轉換模型所無法做到的。實證結果發現多變量動態馬可夫轉換單因子模型確較單變量馬可夫轉換模型更有助於台灣景氣循環轉折點之認定與預測,尤其是在1990年代之後。

並列摘要


This paper builds upon the ideas proposed by Diebold and Rudebusch (1996) and estimates a multivariate dynamic Markov-switching factor model for a vector of macroeconomic variables. The approach captures both the idea of the business cycle as expressing co-movement in several macroeconomic variables as well as the asymmetric nature of business cycle phases. We transform the empirical models into state-space representation, and adopt Kim’s (1994) algorithm to implement the estimation. The empirical results suggest that the business chronologies identified by the multivariate Markov-switching factor model in terms of GDP, consumption and investment are more consistent with the CEPD-defined chronologies than those defined by the univariate Markov-switching models, especially for the post-1990 period.

參考文獻


陳仕偉 Chen, Shyh-Wei、 林金龍 Lin, Jin-Lung(2000)。臺灣景氣循環之探討:變動移轉機率馬可夫轉換模型之應用 Modelling Business Cycles in Taiwan with Time-Varying Markov Switching Models。經濟論文 Academia Economic Papers。28(1)
Boldin, M. D.(1994).Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle.Journal of Business.67
Burns, A. F., Mitchell, W. C.(1946).Measuring Business Cycles.New York:National Bureau of Economic Research.
Chauvet, M.(1998).An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching.International Economic Review.39
Diebold, F. X., Lee, J. -H., Weinbach, G. C.(1994).Nonstationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration.Oxford:Oxford University Press.

被引用紀錄


呂宗益(2015)。景氣循環下之最適資產配置〔碩士論文,國立臺北商業大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6818/NTUB.2015.00003
劉瑞文(2014)。新總體經濟指標的建構〔博士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.01390
姜子凡(2010)。最適景氣循環資產配置〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.10260
Jianming, H. (2012). 利用動態Probit模型預測台灣景氣衰退 [master's thesis, National Chung Cheng University]. Airiti Library. https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0033-2110201613505678
謝亞芝(2013)。具狀態轉換之類股與加權指數之誤差修正模型〔碩士論文,國立臺北大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0023-1407201301343700

延伸閱讀