스튜던트 T 코퓰라 모델을 이용한 지역별 쌀 생산량의 공간적 종속성 추정

Estimating Spatial Dependence Using Student’s T Copula for Rice Production Yield among South Korea Provinces

This study aims to estimate spatial dependence for rice production yield among eight provinces in South Korea. Student’s T copula is used to estimate the spatial dependence and tail dependence. Yearly historical rice production yield data(1960-2016) for eight provinces are de-trended and normalized as year 2016 to estimate spatial dependence and tail dependence. The result shows that rice production yields for most provinces are strongly correlated to each other. Also, tail dependence shows a strong relationship for each other except some provinces. This implies that crop insurance programs should be partly supported by government due to the possibility of high systemic risk. In addition, regional production yield risk modelling imposing the spatial dependence is proper than an unified aggregate risk modelling.