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Fermi's paradox: The last challenge for copernicanism?

Ćirković M.M. (Astronomical Observatory, Belgrade + Department of Physics, University, Novi Sad)

We review Fermi's paradox (or the 'Great Silence' problem), not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI), but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already more than three quarters of century old puzzle and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built in various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of various classes of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems that the class of (neo)catastrophic hypotheses gives, on the balance, the strongest justification to optimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.

Keywords: astrobiology, extraterrestrial intelligence, Galaxy, evolution, history and philosophy of astronomy