본 연구는 우리나라의 인구구조 현황 및 추이를 살펴보고 인구구조 변화가 경제에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 특히 인구구조를 생산가능인구비중, 피부양인구비중, 유소년인구비중, 노년인구비중, 노령화지수, 노년부양비율 등 다양하게 구분하여 전국 및 수도권 지역의 인구구조 변화를 살펴보았다. 실증분석을 위해 먼저 패널회귀모형을 설정하여 인구구조가 1인당 GRDP에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석 결과 피부양인구비중 상승이 경제성장에 부정적이었으며, 노년인구비중, 노령화지수, 노년부양비율도 유의한 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 인구구조와 경제성장간 비선형효과를 살펴본 결과 유소년인구비중이 경제성장에 역U자의 영향을 미치는 임계치는 21.3%로 나타난 가운데, 현재 우리나라의 유소년인구비중은 이미 임계치를 하회하여 성장에 부정적인 영향을 미치고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 다음으로 VAR모형을 설정하여 인구구조가 고용률, 노동생산성에 미치는 영향을 전국, 수도권으로 구분하여 비교·분석하였다. VAR모형 분석결과 생산가능인구비중 충격이 노동생산성에 미치는 영향이 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 이처럼 인구구조 변화가 우리 경제에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타남에 따라 부정적인 영향을 최소화하고 이를 상쇄하는 방향으로 정책적 노력을 기울일 필요가 있다.
This paper examines the changes in the Korean demographic structure, then estimates the effects of the demographic transition on the Korean economy. Aiming to thoroughly investigate how the changes can affect the economy, various demographic variables have been used, which can be named as the share of working-age population, dependent population, young-age and old-age dependent population, the ageing index and the old-age dependency ratio. Especially, besides the effects on national economy, we also consider demographic changes in metropolitan area and their consequences on regional economic growth. According to a panel regression model, the rise in dependent population is found to have a negative effect on economic growth. The share of the old, ageing index and old-age dependency ratio are also reported to significantly reduce economic growth. Regarding non-linear effects, the share of young-age population is shown to have an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic growth at 21.3% threshold. Since the Korean young-age population is now lower than the threshold, it is estimated to negatively affect the economy. In addition, we employ a VAR model to analyze the impacts of the demographic changes on employment as well as labor productivity. The results show that a shock in the share of working-age population has an impact on labor productivity.
This paper examines the changes in the Korean demographic structure, then estimates the effects of the demographic transition on the Korean economy. Aiming to thoroughly investigate how the changes can affect the economy, various demographic variables have been used, which can be named as the share of working-age population, dependent population, young-age and old-age dependent population, the ageing index and the old-age dependency ratio. Especially, besides the effects on national economy, we also consider demographic changes in metropolitan area and their consequences on regional economic growth. According to a panel regression model, the rise in dependent population is found to have a negative effect on economic growth. The share of the old, ageing index and old-age dependency ratio are also reported to significantly reduce economic growth. Regarding non-linear effects, the share of young-age population is shown to have an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic growth at 21.3% threshold. Since the Korean young-age population is now lower than the threshold, it is estimated to negatively affect the economy. In addition, we employ a VAR model to analyze the impacts of the demographic changes on employment as well as labor productivity. The results show that a shock in the share of working-age population has an impact on labor productivity.
