Una nueva perspectiva del contagio financiero energético en Colombia: evidencia del análisis de ondas y dinámicas de comovimientos
Resumen
Objetivo: examinar la existencia de contagio financiero energético desde los principales indicadores de desempeño energético: petróleo, gas natural y carbón sobre los precios spot de energía en Colombia.
Diseño/metodología: la metodología empleada en este estudio fue de tipo correlacional, con un enfoque cuantitativo. Se emplearon datos diarios de febrero de 2011 a diciembre de 2018, excluyendo la crisis financiera de 2008 y la pandemia por COVID-19. Los datos provienen de Refinitiv y XM. Se aplicó el análisis de ondas (wavelets analysis) y dinámica de comovimientos (co-movimientos dynamics). Además, se utilizó la correlación cruzada para el análisis de contagio financiero entre los indicadores de desempeño energético y los precios spot de energía.
Resultados: la investigación demostró que existen correlaciones significativas a largo plazo entre los indicadores de desempeño energético y los precios spot de energía. Además, determinó la presencia de contagio del gas natural y del petróleo brent sobre los precios spot de energía durante periodos de crisis. Con respecto al carbón, no hay evidencia clara de contagio. Estos hallazgos son relevantes para comprender cómo los cambios en el mercado global de la energía pueden afectar los precios de esta a largo plazo en una economía emergente como la colombiana.
Conclusiones: el contagio financiero energético impacta la economía global, especialmente en mercados emergentes dependientes de energía. Este estudio resalta la necesidad de comprender y mitigar riesgos en el mercado energético, ofreciendo información clave para empresas, inversores y formuladores de políticas.
Originalidad: se emplearon métodos avanzados para analizar el impacto de los precios internacionales de combustibles en el mercado energético colombiano, identificando periodos de contagio y subrayando la vulnerabilidad de economías emergentes frente a cambios en el mercado global de la energía.
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