土木学会論文集B1(水工学)
Online ISSN : 2185-467X
ISSN-L : 2185-467X
水工学論文集第57巻
全球気候モデルにおける人間活動の影響を考慮した陸面初期値が準季節予報スキルに与える効果
山原 康希山田 朋人Yadu POKHREL
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2013 年 69 巻 4 号 p. I_1807-I_1812

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In recent years, the damage caused by extreme weather events has frequently been reported in many parts of the world. Therefore the improvement of prediction accuracy for extreme events is an urgent issue. This study conducted to evaluate the sub-seasonal forecast skill with land initializations in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) targeting a severe drought event which occurred in the North American continental in boreal summer of 1988. The experiment using land initialization with influence of human activities, sub-seasonal forecast skill for near surface temperature improved its skill comparing with another forecast experiment without realistic land initializations. We obtained the result of forecast that soil moisture states could come to have a long dry state by considering human activities at the drought event.

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