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Abstract
Vietnam is about to join the WTO. As a major exporter of rice, coffee, cashew nuts and
pepper, accession to the WTO will have little impact on these export markets, as tariffs on these
exports are already low. However, accession will require Vietnam to expose some of its inefficient
agricultural sectors, such as sugar and maize, to international competition. Furthermore, multilateral
reforms within the WTO are likely to raise prices of temperate product goods that are imported by
Vietnam, worsening its terms of trade.
A quantitative analysis of likely policy changes is undertaken assuming Vietnam’s accession
terms are likely to bring its agricultural tariffs down to an average of 18 per cent. A likely WTO
outcome is then simulated. The impacts suggest Vietnam gains from accession but further WTO
liberalisation raises import prices and has a negative impact.