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Abstract
Using nationally-representative household survey data and confidential geo-coded data on
violence, we examine the relationship between conflict and food insecurity in Afghanistan. Spatial
mappings of the raw data reveal large variations in levels of food insecurity and conflict across the
country; surprisingly, high conflict provinces are not the most food insecure. Using a simple
bivariate regression model of conflict (violent incidents and persons killed or injured) on food
security (calorie intake and the real value of food consumed), we find mixed associations. But once
we move to a multivariate framework, accounting for household characteristics and key commodity
prices, we find robust evidence that in Afghanistan levels of conflict and food security are negatively
correlated. We also find that households in provinces with higher levels of conflict experience muted
declines in food security due to staple food price increases relative to households in provinces with
lower levels of conflict, perhaps because the former are more disconnected from markets. Gaining a
better understanding of linkages between conflict and food insecurity and knowing their spatial
distributions can serve to inform policymakers interested in targeting scarce resources to vulnerable
populations, for example, through the placement of strategic grain reserves or targeted food
assistance programs.