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Aproximación a los relacionamientos entre gobernanza y objetivos de desarrollo sostenible para América
AN APPROACH TO THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GOVERNANCE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS FOR THE AMERICAS
ABORDAGEM DAS RELAÇÕES ENTRE A GOVERNANÇA E OS OBJETIVOS DE DESENVOLVIMENTO SUSTENTÁVEL PARA AS AMÉRICAS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/innovar.v34n91.100460Palabras clave:
Américas, gobernanza, institucionalismo, objetivos de desarrollo sostenible, regresión logística (es)America, governance, institutionalism, sustainable development goals, logistic regression (en)
América, governança, institucionalismo, objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável, regressão logística (pt)
Alcanzar las metas en 2030 de los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible (ODS) de 2015 depende de cómo actores públicos y privados formulen políticas e implementen acciones de cumplimiento, esto es, que tengan buena gobernanza. Esta investigación busca identificar en sus relacionamientos, los indicadores de gobernanza (variable indepen-diente) que tienen mayor influencia sobre cada ODS (variable dependiente) y, a través de modelos generados usando regresiones logísticas, también pretende calcular la probabilidad para países de América que tengan un ODS superior o inferior a la mediana. Así, se confirma la buena correlación entre las diferentes variables. Además, se identifica el control de la corrupción, seguida por la estabilidad política y la ausencia de violencia/terrorismo, como indicador de gobernanza que mejor explica (encima de la mediana) modelos para predecir la evolución de los ODS. Es novedosa la utilización de variables cuantitativas para identificar interrelaciones entre gobernanza y ODS, además de hacerlo en un alcance regional para América. Se concluye la necesidad de estruc-turas institucionales fuertes con buena gobernanza para mejorar la mayoría de los ODS. Existieron limitaciones estadísticas que dejan por fuera algunos ODS (5, 10, 12, 13, 14, 17) y que requieren análisis. Es en esta línea donde se podría empezar a indagar, así como en estudios específicos de países, que de momento son descriptivos o casuísticos en su mayoría.
Reaching the 2030 targets of the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (sdgs) depends on how public and private actors formulate policies and implement compliance actions, i.e., on having good governance. This research seeks to identify the governance indicators (independent variable) with the greatest influence on each sdg (dependent variable). Through a series of models generated using logistic regressions, this work calculates the probability for countries in the Americas of having one sdg above or below the median. Thus, the strong correlation between different variables is confirmed. Among the main findings, corruption control is identified as the governance indicator that best explains models predicting the evolution of the sdgs (above the median), followed by political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism. The use of quantitative variables to identify interrelationships between governance and sdgs, as well as doing so on a regional scale for the Americas, is a novel proposal delivered by this work. Results emphasize the need for strong institutional structures with good governance in order to improve the majority of the sdgs. Statistical limitations excluded some sdgs (5, 10, 12, 13, 14, 17) and require further analysis, establishing an area of opportunity where further studies addressing specific country-level information could be initiated, since currently available studies on the subject are mainly descriptive or casuistical.
o cumprimento das metas de 2030 dos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ODS) de 2015 depende de como os atores públicos e privados formulam políticas e implementam ações de cumprimento, ou seja, que tenham boa governança. Esta pesquisa busca identificar, em suas relações, os indicadores de governança (variável independente) que exercem maior influência sobre cada ODS (variável dependente) e, por meio de modelos gerados por meio de regressões logísticas, visa também calcular a probabilidade de os países das Américas terem um ODS acima ou abaixo da mediana. Assim, confirma-se a boa correlação entre as diferentes variáveis. Além disso, o controle da corrupção, seguido da estabilidade política e da ausência de violência/terrorismo, é identificado como o indicador de governança que melhor explica (acima da mediana) os modelos de previsão da evolução dos ODS. O uso de variáveis quantitativas para identificar as inter-relações entre a governança e os ODS é inovador, além de fazê-lo em um escopo regional para as Américas. Conclui-se que são necessárias estruturas institucionais fortes com boa governança para melhorar a maioria dos ODS. Houve limitações estatísticas que deixaram de fora alguns ODS (5, 10, 12, 13, 14, 17) e que exigem análise. Nesse sentido, outras pesquisas poderiam ser realizadas, bem como estudos específicos de cada país, que, no momento, são em sua maioria descritivos ou casuísticos.
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