Early Warning of the Business Cycles based on the International Financial CrisisChinese Full Text
WANG Jin- ming;Center for Quantitative Economics of Jilin University;
Abstract: This paper tries to study the leading property of the leading indicators chosen by different departments based on rolling correlation coefficient,finding that the leading property of the leading indicators changes significantly as time goes by. By choosing the leading indicators which have significant leading property and stable leading time,and based on dynamic factor model,it finds the leading index has great precautionary ability,and the forecasting outcome based on leading index is good at forecasting economic cycle in short time. Thus,the method of choosing leading indicators should be revised to choose the better leading indicators and compose the leading index,in order to play the early warning function of leading index,ensuring the steady and healthy development of China’s economy.
- DOI：
10.13902/j.cnki.syyj.2014.05.003
- Series：
- Subject：
- Classification Code：
F224;F124.8;F831.59
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