Global Civil Unrest: Contagion, Self-Organization, and Prediction
Figure 3
Observed data and best-fit curves for civil unrest event count distributions.
Observed values are denoted by circles. Solid best-fit lines denote average distributions calculated from 500 realizations of the social unrest contagion model. The goodness of fit of the model relative to the empirically observed unrest event count distributions was determined by measuring the distance between the observed and simulated distributions. Here, the tail-weighted Kolmogorov–Smirnov (wKS) statistic is used (see the section Assessing the Goodness of Fit of the Model). The fit of the model is very good for all regions. Goodness-of-fit (wKS) and fitted parameters for all regions: Western Asia = 0.1269
, South-Eastern Asia = 0.1581
, Eastern Asia = 0.1492
, Southern Central Asia = 0.1078
, Western Africa = 0.1749
, Southern Africa = 0.2513
, Middle Africa = 0.1856
, Eastern Africa = 0.1191
, Western Europe = 0.1436
, Southern Europe = 0.11220
, Northern Europe = 0.16
, Eastern Europe = 0.1634
, Caribbean, Central, and South America = 0.0707
, North America = 0.2349
. Values of wKS that are less than 0.3 represent good fits (see the section Assessing the Goodness of Fit of the Model).