Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore
Figure 3
(Left) Actual (red and orange crosses) and predicted (grey shaded area) average number of patients presenting with influenza-like illness per day at the average participating GPFD. The information used to form the forecast is indicated by the red crosses. The last day of information used in forming the forecast is indicated with a red triangle. Predictions here (and in the right-hand column) take the form of decreasing credible intervals, with the region spanned by the outermost polygons corresponding to 95% credibility. Orange crosses indicate future data not used in forming the forecasts. (Right) Predicted total number of people who (i) are currently symptomatic, or (ii) have recovered, assuming no pre-existing immunity. The last day of information used in forming the forecasts is indicated with a red triangle. The cyan cross on the bottom panel indicates the age-adjusted estimate of adult seroconversion in the community from an independent study (maximum likelihood estimate and 95% confidence interval, Mark I-Cheng Chen, personal correspondence).