Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza
Figure 6
Impact of Interventions: Sensitivity to Disease Assumptions
Impact of interventions under different assumptions about how the probability of being infectious and the degree of infectiousness varies with time since infection (A–I) and with latitude (J–L). Interventions, key, and other details are as in Figure 4, except all interventions occur after 1,000 cases in Hong Kong, and 100 cases elsewhere.
(A–C) Variable infectiousness (baseline daily progression and recovery probabilities, but degree of infectiousness declines sharply after day 1 since infection). Mean serial interval = 2.6 d; mean infectious period = 3.0 d; mean latent period = 1.9 d.
(D–F) Reduced latent period (constant infectiousness): Mean serial interval = 3.8 d; mean infectious period = 3.4 d; mean latent period = 1.2 d.
(G–I) Extended infectious period (constant infectiousness): Mean serial interval = 8.6 d; mean infectious period = 3.9 d; mean latent period = 5 d.
(J–L) Baseline parameters (constant infectiousness), but transmission in the tropics set to the mean of that in the temperate region.
(A, D, G, and J) Proportion of secondary transmission that occurs 0–20 d after infection. In all cases, no transmission occurs on day 0 and R0,max = 3.