Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong
Fig 3
Accuracy predicting outbreak peak timing (A), peak magnitude (B), onset (C), and duration (D).
Accuracy was calculated over all forecasts (332,400 for each setting of the forecast system). This analysis includes the forecasts for seasonal H1N1, the 2009 pandemic H1N1, H3N2, B and all strains combined. Results are shown for the EAKF (red) and the PF (blue), evaluated using two standards (solid vs. dashed lines, as specified in the parentheses). On the x-axis, positive leads indicate that a peak is forecast in the future; negative leads indicate that a peak is forecast in the past; a 0 week lead indicates that a peak is forecast as the same week of forecast. Leads are relative to the predicted peak for forecasts of the peak timing, peak magnitude, and duration, and relative to the predicted onset for forecasts of onset timing.