Population Review

Existing national projections of HIV/AIDS in China do not account for the heterogeneity of HIV rates and risks across provinces. This paper takes a first step to better understand the contribution of provincial epidemics to the national epidemic by presenting a set of estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS for Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing a standard modeling approach, HIV seroprevalence data and data from a 2000 census are used to estimate trends of HIV infections and AIDS deaths in Yunnan. These estimates and projections give important insights into the possible evolution of HIV/AIDS across Chinese provinces and nationwide. They cast doubt on the magnitude of the future impact of HIV/AIDS in China as currently suggested by UNAIDS and other international agencies.