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Research of Environmental Sciences. 2013, (05) Core

Simulation of Land Use Change and Temporal-Spatial Heterogeneity of Eco-Risk in Urban FringeChinese Full Text

TIAN Yi-chao1,LIANG Ming-zhong1,REN Zhi-yuan2 1.College of Resources and Environment,Qinzhou University,Qinzhou 535000,China 2.College of Tourism and Environment,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710062,China

Abstract: Based on image data of Landsat TM/ETM in 1998 and 2009 and the other data with multiple driving factors,the land uses were simulated and predicted by Binary Logistic and CA-Markov models.Subsequently,the temporal and spatial heterogeneity distribution of land use in urban fringe of Baota District of Yan’an City in 1998,2009 and 2020 were analyzed through the eco-risk indices using softwares of GS+9.0 and ArcGIS9.3.The analyzed results showed: 1) The land use probability map in 2009 calculated from the Binary Logistics model was used as the Suitability Atlas in the CA-Markov model to simulate the results in 2020.The ROC values of land use types in 2020 were over than 0.70.2) The simulated results of land use in 2020 indicated that 18.64% of decrease in the arable land and 15.42% of increase construction land were significantly and negatively correlated.3)The analysis of the heterogeneity of land use eco-risk showed that the integrity of the landscape and land use structures were seriously affected by the change of the spatial structure of the original land use,which patterns of land use were dominated by human activities.4) The entire eco-risk of urban fringe appeared to be a highly risk distributed from 2009 to 2020,with eco-risk increase from 0.06 in 2009 to 0.66 in 2020.
Keywords：

land use; Binary Logistic; CA-Markov; spatial simulation; heterogeneity;

  • DOI：

    10.13198/j.res.2013.05.79.tianych.006

  • Series：

  • Subject：

  • Classification Code：

    X37;F301

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