2021 Volume 85 Issue 8 Pages 1265-1272
Background:The optimum cut-off value of premature atrial contraction (PAC) burden (CV-PACb) in 24-h Holter electrocardiography (24-h ECG) for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) is debatable, with few validation data.
Methods and Results:We retrospectively analyzed 61 patients already diagnosed with AF (AD-AF) and 147 patients never diagnosed with AF (ND-AF), aged ≥50 years, free of heart disease, and who had undergone 24-h ECG and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that 0.4% was the optimal CV-PACb differentiating AD-AF from ND-AF, with 69% sensitivity and 72% specificity (area under the curve [AUC] 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65–0.79); however, the left atrial volume index was not significant (AUC 0.60; 95% CI 0.51–0.68). To verify the CV-PACb, new propensity-matched cohorts (i.e., subjects with a PAC burden ≥0.4% and <0.4%; n=69 in each group) were compared based on new detection of AF at a median follow-up of 50 months (interquartile range 12–60 months) Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that among 24-h ECG and TTE findings, only PAC burden ≥0.4% was independently associated with incident AF (hazard ratio 5.28; 95% CI 1.28–26.11; P=0.023).
Conclusions:A high PAC burden (≥0.4%) in 24-h ECG was a reliable indicator to identify undiagnosed AF, whereas TTE parameters did not show any predictive value.
