Maximum likelihood estimation of hidden Markov processes
Halina Frydman and Peter Lakner
Source: Ann. Appl. Probab.
Volume 13, Number 4
(2003), 1296-1312.
Abstract
We consider the process $dY_{t}=u_{t}\,dt+dW_{t},$
where $u$ is a process not
necessarily adapted to $\mathcal{F}^{Y}$ (the filtration generated by the
process $Y)$ and $W$ is a Brownian motion. We obtain a general
representation for the likelihood ratio of the law of the $Y$ process
relative to Brownian measure. This representation involves only one basic
filter (expectation of $u$ conditional on observed process $Y$). This
generalizes the result of Kailath and Zakai [Ann. Math. Statist.
42
(1971) 130-140] where it is assumed that
the process $u$ is adapted to $\mathcal{F}^{Y}.$ In particular, we consider
the model in which $u$ is a functional of $Y$ and of a random element $X$
which is independent of the Brownian motion $W.$ For example, $X$ could be a
diffusion or a Markov chain. This result can be applied to the estimation of
an unknown multidimensional parameter $\theta$ appearing in the dynamics of
the process $u$ based on continuous observation of $Y$ on the time interval
$[0,T]$. For a specific hidden diffusion financial model in which $u$ is an
unobserved mean-reverting diffusion, we give an explicit form for the
likelihood function of $\theta.$ For this model we also develop a
computationally explicit E--M algorithm for the estimation of $\theta.$ In
contrast to the likelihood ratio, the algorithm involves evaluation of a
number of filtered integrals in addition to the basic filter.
Primary Subjects: 62M05, 60J60, 60J25
Keywords: Hidden diffusion financial models; likelihood ratio; maximum likelihood estimation; E-M algorithm; filtered integrals
Full-text: Access granted (open access)
Links and Identifiers
Permanent link to this document: http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoap/1069786500
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1214/aoap/1069786500
Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet):
MR2023878
Zentralblatt MATH identifier:
1035.62084
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