Climate change, fiscal balance and dynastical cycles in China over the past 2000 years
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摘要:
从时间维的角度考察气候变化与人类社会之间的长期关系仍有待更多的量化实证研究。基于所重建的多条量化指标序列，文章分析了220 BC~1910 A.D.中国气候变化、财政平衡及朝代更迭之间的时间关系统计特征。结果发现，过去2000年中国财政平衡波动存在40~320 a的多个主导周期，其中80~100 a周期最为显著，财政周期在社会动荡、朝代更迭频繁时期趋于缩短，和平时期延长，并在1000~1200 A.D.前后开始有随时间变长趋势。财政平衡与温度变化在250~280 a的共振周期上呈较一致的正相关关系，与降水变化在60~80 a、80~100 a和160 a这3个共振周期存在显著正相关。在10~30 a尺度上，温度和降水变化对财政平衡波动具有协同效应，在30 a尺度上同时考虑温度、降水和财政平衡1阶滞后项为预测变量时，回归模型对财政波动的解释力最高可达27.4%，但受气候序列空间范围和分析时段的影响；降水比温度更适于解释中国历史财政旋回的波动。尽管在百年尺度上，气候冷暖期与王朝历时的长短及并存政权数量的多少没有十分一致的时间对应关系，但在年代到多年代尺度上，70%以上的王朝更迭期和并存政权数量增加期对应冷阶段或偏干阶段及财政匮乏期。
Abstract:Quantitatively investigating the relationship between climate change and human society merits more empirical exploration, from a deep time perspective. This paper takes the whole China during 220 BC~1910 A.D. as the study area and research period, aiming to analyze the long-term temporal patterns for the relationship among climate change, fiscal balance and dynastical cycles in China over the past 2000 years. In order to achieve this purpose, the paper used six key reconstructed proxies, including two temperature anomaly series of the whole China (1~1910 A.D.) and the Eastern China (210 BC~1910 A.D.), precipitation of Eastern China (101~1910 A.D.), fiscal grade sequence (220 BC~1910 A.D.), durations of each dynasty and the 10-year average number of coexisting regimes in historical China. Sequences comparison and multiple statistical tools such as FFT low-pass filter, wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis and regression model are also used to explore the periodic resonance and correlation between climate change and fiscal balance, the synergistic effect of temperature and precipitation change on fiscal balance, and the background of climate and fiscal balance during dynastical alternations. It is found that fluctuation of fiscal balance had multiple periodicities ranging from 40 years to 320 years in China during 220 BC~1910 A.D. The period of 80~100 years is the most statistically significant and basically distributed temporally throughout the study period. The fiscal cycle shortened in the period of social turbulence and frequent dynastic changes, and prolonged in the period of peace and stability. Throughout the past 2000 years, the length of the fiscal periodicity displayed a growing trend, with the transition period during 1000~1200 A.D. Moreover, fiscal balance was positively associated significantly with temperature at the predominant bands of 250~280 years, and with precipitation at the three bands of 60~80 years, 80~100 years and 160 years. On the scale of 10~30 years, the synergistic effect of temperature change and precipitation change on fiscal balance is significant. On the 30-year scale, when taking all of the temperature, precipitation and first-order lag of fiscal balance as predicting variables, the explanatory power of regression model can reach as high as 27.4%. However, it is related to the spatial range of climate sequences and analysis period. Compared with temperature change, precipitation is more suitable for explaining the historical fiscal balance cycle in China on the 10 to 30-year scale. Besides, it is noted that most of the fiscal sufficient periods corresponded to the prosperous periods, but the fiscal deficiency periods might both appear in the crisis/turbulent periods and the prosperous periods. Before the Ming and Qing Dynasties, most prosperous periods occurred in the centennial-scale warm period, whiles most turbulent periods occurred in the centennial-scale cold period. Although there was no consistent temporal correspondence among climatic warm/cold periods, duration of the dynasties and the number of coexisting regimes on the centennial scale over the past 2000 years, 70% dynastical alternations corresponded to cold stages or relatively dry stages and fiscal deficiency periods at the decadal to multidecade scale.
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Key words:
- climate change /
- fiscal balance /
- dynastical cycle /
- China /
- past 2000 years
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图 1
220 BC~1910 A.D.中国财政平衡和气候变化的连续小波功率谱图
Figure 1.
The continuous wavelet power spectra for fiscal balance and climate change in China during 220 BC~1910 A.D. Left graphs are original 10-year resolution series, and right graphs are 60-year FFT smoothing series. (a) and (b): fiscal balance[33]; (c) and (d): temperature anomaly of the whole China[37]; (e) and (f): precipitation of Eastern China[38]. The color codes for power values vary from dark blue (low values) to dark red (high values). The thick black contour lines designate the 5 % significance level. Semitransparent cones indicate the regions influenced by edge effects
图 2
1~1910 A.D.中国财政平衡和气候变化的交叉小波相关分析
Figure 2.
Wavelet coherences between fiscal balance and climate change in China during 1~1910 A.D. Graphs above are original 10 a resolution series, and graphs below are 60 a FFT smoothing series. (a) and (c): fiscal balance-temperature anomaly of the whole China[33, 37]; (b) and (d): fiscal balance-precipitation of Eastern China[33, 38]. The color codes for power values vary from dark blue(low values)to dark red(high values). The thick black contour lines designate the 5 % significance level. Semitransparent cones indicate the regions influenced by edge effects. The arrows indicate the relative phase relationship(right: in-phase; left: out-of-phase)
图 3
220 BC~1910 A.D.中国气候变化、财政平衡与朝代更迭
Figure 3.
Comparison of climate change, fiscal balance and dynastical cycles in China during 220 BC~1910 A.D.
表 1
各指标序列的ADF检验结果
Table 1.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)Unit Root Test for indexes
指标 外生变量 T统计值 结果 ADF* 1% 5% 10% 财政平衡(F) 常数 -5.769 -3.461 -2.875 -2.574 1%水平上无单位根 全国温度(TC) 常数 -5.287 -3.463 -2.876 -2.575 1%水平上无单位根 东部冬半年温度(WTE) 常数 -4.594 -3.527 -2.904 -2.589 1%水平上无单位根 东部降水(P) 常数 -9.263 -3.465 -2.877 -2.575 1%水平上无单位根 *滞后期均为0 
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表 2
基于10年分辨率序列的财政平衡与气候变化回归分析
Table 2.
Regression models of fiscal fluctuation and climate change on the decadal scale
模型 1a 2a 3a 4a 5a 6a 7a 常数 2.813****
(0.085)2.848****
(0.086)2.824****
(0.086)0.785****
(0.149)0.772****
(0.158)0.815****
(0.163)0.814****
(0.166)Ft-1 0.721****
(0.048)0.728****
(0.046)0.710****
(0.053)0.711****
(0.055)TCt 0.823**
(0.406)0.928**
(0.407)-0.104
(0.293)-0.008
(0.301)Pt 0.207**
(0.100)0.228**
(0.099)0.100*
(0.071)0.100*
(0.072)Adj R2 0.016** 0.018** 0.041*** 0.511**** 0.513**** 0.510**** 0.507**** *P < 0.10；**P < 0.05；***P < 0.01；****P < 0.001
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表 3
30年尺度上财政平衡与气候变化的回归分析
Table 3.
Regression models of fiscal fluctuation and climate change on the three decadal scale
模型 1b 2b 3b 4b 5b 6b 7b 常数 2.892****
(0.138)2.900****
(0.134)2.889****
(0.131)2.069****
(0.354)1.917****
(0.375)1.829****
(0.362)1.904****
(0.360)Ft-1 0.291**
(0.115)0.337***
(0.122)0.365***
(0.116)0.336***
(0.116)TCt 0.619
(0.682)1.315*
(0.673)0.401
(0.652)1.030
(0.640)Pt 0.602***
(0.210)0.702***
(0.211)0.628***
(0.195)0.704****
(0.198)Adj R2 -0.003 0.111*** 0.153*** 0.074** 0.096** 0.231**** 0.252**** *P < 0.10；**P < 0.05；***P < 0.01；****P < 0.001
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表 4
30年尺度上财政平衡与气候变化(中国东部冬半年温度序列)的回归分析
Table 4.
Regression models of fiscal fluctuation and climate change(based on the winter-half-year temperature of Eastern China)on the three decadal scale
模型 1c 3c 5c 7c 1d 5d 常数 2.947****
(0.135)2.95****
(0.131)2.01****
(0.372)1.955****
(0.357)2.897****
(0.128)2.145****
(0.348)Ft-1 0.320***
(0.119)0.337***
(0.113)0.273**
(0.112)WTE0t 0.555**
(0.276)0.602**
(0.263)0.465*
(0.265)0.514**
(0.248)WTEt 0.418
(0.259)0.520**
(0.251)Pt 0.653***
(0.203)0.669****
(0.191)Adj R2 -0.047** 0.173*** 0.135*** 0.274**** -0.023 0.117*** *P < 0.10；**P < 0.05；***P < 0.01；****P < 0.001
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表 5
主要历史朝代更替对应的气候与财政统计特征
Table 5.
Statistical characteristics of climate and fiscal balance for major historical dynastical alternations
朝代/时段 灭亡时间(年) 平均并存政权数量 百年冷暖期 东部冬半年30年温度距平 干湿指数 财政等级 秦朝 -207 暖 1 — 1 西汉 25 暖 -0.4 — 1 东汉 220 冷 -0.3 -0.11 3 西晋 316 冷 -0.5 -1.24 1 东晋 420 冷 -0.1 -0.12 4 北魏 557 冷 0.3 -1.3 2 隋朝 618 暖 0.7 0.21 4 唐朝 907 冷 -0.2 0.52 2 北宋 1127 暖 -0.3 -0.32 2 南宋 1279 暖 0.7 -0.19 2 金朝 1234 暖 -0.6 -0.41 2 元朝 1368 冷 -0.5 -0.24 1 明朝 1644 冷 -0.1 -0.15 1 清朝 1911 冷 -0.5 0.96 1 20~30 A.D. 3 暖 -0.4 — 1 220~260 A.D. 3 冷 -0.05 0.36 2.5 300~440 A.D. 5 冷 -0.1 -0.64 2.7 460~590 A.D. 4 冷 -0.42 -0.23 2.8 610~630 A.D. 5 暖 0.7 -0.32 3 750~1250 A.D. 5 暖 0.06 -0.23 2.9 1350~1370 A.D. 3 冷 -0.5 -0.66 1 1640~1650 A.D. 3 冷 -0.1 -0.15 1 1850~1860 A.D. 3 冷 -0.7 0.33 2
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