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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (9): 286-290.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2043

所属专题： 园艺

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    

天津市蔬菜价格波动规律及短期预测——基于时间序列的季节调整和预测

王丽娟,信丽媛,贾宝红   

  1. 天津市农业科学院信息研究所,天津农业科学院信息研究所,
  • 收稿日期:2014-07-25 修回日期:2015-01-29 接受日期:2015-02-09 出版日期:2015-04-07 发布日期:2015-04-07
  • 通讯作者: 王丽娟
  • 基金资助:
    天津市农委调查研究项目(TJNWY2013010)。

Studies on Vegetable Price Fluctuation Law in TianJin and Short term prediction-- Based on seasonal adjustment and prediction of time series

  • Received:2014-07-25 Revised:2015-01-29 Accepted:2015-02-09 Online:2015-04-07 Published:2015-04-07

摘要： 蔬菜价格波动不仅是市民关注的热点，更是农民安排生产的依据，研究其变动规律具有现实意义。本文采用Census X-12方法和H-P滤波方法，分析了2007年至2013年天津市8种蔬菜批发均价的波动规律。结果表明，蔬菜价格在生产、流通、季节、气候等多重因素影响下整体上呈上涨趋势，而且季节性波动明显，受自然灾害等突发因素影响较大，蔬菜价格呈“两年涨一年跌”的周期循环特征。根据季节调整结果，建模预测2014年蔬菜价格走势，预测结果与实际较为吻合。

关键词: 黑龙江省, 黑龙江省, 城乡一体化, 进程评估, 指标体系, 对策建议

Abstract: Fluctuation of vegetable price is not only the focus of the public, but also the basis for farmers’ arranging production. The studies on the fluctuation law have practical significance. By using Census X-12 method and H-P filtering method, this paper analyzes the fluctuation law of 8 vegetable wholesale prices in Tianjin from 2007 to 2013. The results show that, under the influence of the production, circulation, season, climate and multiple factors, the overall price of vegetables changes in rising trend, seasonally fluctuated obviously and are affected remarkably by natural disasters and other unexpected factors, vegetable prices were recurring cycle features of "two years rise and a year falls" . According to the results of seasonal adjustment, we make model to forecast 2014 vegetable prices trend in the paper, and the prediction results are in good agreement with the actual.