Monthly Weather Review

Article: pp. 779–795 | Abstract | PDF (1.26M)

Extended-Range Forecasts with the GISS Model of the Global Atmosphere

Leonard M. Druyan, Richard C.J. Somerville, and William J. Quirk

Institute for space Studies, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, New York, N. Y. 10025

(Manuscript received February 7, 1975, in final form June 5, 1975)

DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1975)103<0779:ERFWTG>2.0.CO;2

ABSTRACT

Six cases of two-week numerical weather prediction experiments, begun from and verified against actual data, are presented to illustrate the extended-range forecasting capability of a global circulation model. The forecasts, all for Northern Hemisphere winter, are analyzed for both transient and time-mean properties of the predicted fields of wind, temperature, pressure, and precipitation. Rms temperature and sea-level pressure errors rise above persistence level during the first week, but forecast tropospheric zonal winds and 500 mb heights are superior to persistence throughout the two-week period. Time-mean forecasts display the model's climatological bias, but show skill in the prediction of surface temperature and synoptic-scale circulation patterns representing an improvement over climatology. Skill in precipitation forecasting is demonstrable for about one week.

 

 

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