Abstract
The several competing reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature variability exists with partly conflicting evidence. Here we considered a specific problem of choosing “the best” reconstruction, in a frame of assumptions, that they are produced by smooth dynamical system as well as instrumental time series. Using some sophisticated measures of similarity, we could not match to all existing hemispheric paleoclimate reconstructions with hypothesis about any deterministic system which can produced its as typical projection of their trajectories. The results cast doubt on the conventional techniques frequently used to reconstruct past climate variability.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bandt, C. and Shiha, F., Order pattern in time series, J. Time Ser. Analysis, 2007, vol. 28, pp. 646–665.
Barriero, O. and Levy Vehel, J., Local Hölder regularity-based modeling of RR intervals, in The 21th IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems, Finland, June 17–19, 2008, pp. 75–80.
Bradley, R.S., Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary, London: Academic, 1999.
Briffa, K.R., Annual climate variability in the Holocene: Interpreting the message of ancient trees, Quat. Sci. Rev., 2000, vol. 19, pp. 87–105.
Chainais, P., Riedi, R., and Abry, P., Warped infinitely divisible cascades: Beyond power laws, Trait. Signal, 2005, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 27–40.
Crowley, T. and Lowery, T., How warm was the medieval warm period? Ambio, 2000, vol. 29, pp. 51–54.
Esper, J., Cook, E.R., and Schweingruber, F.H., Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability, Science, 2002, vol. 295, pp. 2250–2253.
Guiot, J., The combination of historical documents and biological data in the reconstruction of climate variations in space and in time, Paleoclim. Res., 1992, vol. 7, pp. 93–100.
Helama, S., Makarenko, N.G., Karimova, L.M., Kruglun, O.A., Timonen, M., Holopainen, J., Merilainen, J., and Eronen, M., Dendroclimatic transfer functions revisited: Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period summer temperatures reconstructed using artificial neural networks and linear algorithms, Ann. Geophys., 2009, vol. 27, pp. 1097–1111.
Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., Barnett, T.R., and Tett, S.F.B., High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: Interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures, The Holocene, 1998, vol. 8, pp. 455–471.
Kaczynski, K., Mischaikow, and Mrozek, M., Computational Homology, Springer-Verlag, 2004.
Karimova, L.M., Kuandykov, Y., Makarenko, N.G., Novak, M.M., and Helama, S., Fractal and topological dynamics for the analysis of paleoclimatic records, Phys. A (Amsterdam, Neth.), 2007, vol. 373, pp. 737–746.
Makarenko, N.G., Nagovitsyn, Yu.A., Ogurtsov, M.G., and Kruglun, O.A., Hölder regularity of paleodata, Tr. XI Pulkovskoi konferentsii po fizike solntsa (Proc. XI Pulkovo Conference on Solar Physics), St. Petersburg, 2007, pp. 239–240.
Mallat, S. and Hwang, W., Singularity detection and processing with wavelets, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, 1992, vol. 38, pp. 617–643.
Mann, M.E., The value of multiple proxies, Science, 2002, vol. 297, pp. 1481–1482.
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., and Hughes, M.K., Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 1999, vol. 26, pp. 759–762.
Monetti, R., Bunk, W., Aschenbrenner, T., and Jamitzky, F., Characterizing synchronization in time series using information measures extracted from symbolic representations, Phys. Rev. E: Stat., Nonlinear, Soft Matter Phys., 2009, vol. 79, p. 046207.
Monin, A.S. and Sonechkin, D.M., Kolebaniya klimata po dannym nablyudenii (The Climate Oscillations), Moscow: Nauka, 2005.
Ogurtsov, M.G., Jungher, H., Lindholm, M., Helama, S., and Dergachev, V.A., Quasisecular cyclicity in the climate of the Earth Northern Hemisphere and its possible correlation with solar activity variations, Soln.-Zemn. Fiz., 2007, no. 10, pp. 10–15.
Rutherford, S. Mann, M.E., et al., Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: Sensitivity to methodology, predictor network, target season and target domain, J. Climate, 2005, vol. 18, pp. 2308–2329.
Takens, F., Detecting strange attractors in turbulence, Lect. Not. Math., 1981, vol. 898, pp. 366–381.
Vapnik, V.N., Estimation of Dependences Based on Empirical Data, Springer, 2006.
Walker, M.J.C., Quaternary Dating Methods, Chichester: Wiley, 2005.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
The article is published in the original.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Makarenko, N.G., Karimova, L.M., Helama, S. et al. Evaluating direct and indirect evidence of climatic change by Hölder regularity and order pattern in time series. Geomagn. Aeron. 53, 922–926 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793213080148
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793213080148