Predictive Simulation of the Subsidence of Venice
Giuseppe Gambolati 1,
Paolo Gatto 2, and
R. Allan Freeze 3
1 IBM Scientific Center, S. Polo 1364, Venice, Italy
2 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Laboratorio per lo Studio della Dinamica delle Grandi Masse, S. Polo 1364, Venice, Italy
3 Department of Geological Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver 8, Canada
Land subsidence at Venice is the result of sediment compaction in the unconsolidated, aquifer-aquitard system that underlies the Venetian Lagoon. Compaction is caused by extensive groundwater withdrawals at the nearby industrial port of Marghera. The total subsidence at Venice for the period from 1930 through 1973 has been about 15 centimeters. Predictive simulations with a calibrated mathematical model were hampered by the sparseness of available data, but, as a first estimate, they suggest that, if withdrawals are kept constant in the future as they have been since 1969, about 3 centimeters of further subsidence can be expected.
