Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030

doi:10.1126/science.1152339

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Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030

David B. Lobell,¹^,2^* Marshall B. Burke,¹ Claudia Tebaldi,³ Michael D. Mastrandrea,⁴ Walter P. Falcon,¹ Rosamond L. Naylor¹

Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climatechange inevitably favor some crops and regions over others.An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regionswas conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statisticalcrop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 generalcirculation models. Results indicate South Asia and SouthernAfrica as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures,will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that areimportant to large food-insecure human populations. We alsofind that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore prioritieswill depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.

¹ Food Security and Environment Program, Woods Institute for the Environment and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
² Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
³ National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
⁴ Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dlobell{at}stanford.edu

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