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Originally published in Science Express on 23 December 2004
Science 28 January 2005:
Vol. 307. no. 5709, pp. 550 - 555
DOI: 10.1126/science.1106049
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Research Articles

Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature

Rhys E. Green,1,2* Stephen J. Cornell,1,3 Jörn P. W. Scharlemann,1,2 Andrew Balmford1,4

World food demand is expected to more than double by 2050. Decisions about how to meet this challenge will have profound effects on wild species and habitats. We show that farming is already the greatest extinction threat to birds (the best known taxon), and its adverse impacts look set to increase, especially in developing countries. Two competing solutions have been proposed: wildlife-friendly farming (which boosts densities of wild populations on farmland but may decrease agricultural yields) and land sparing (which minimizes demand for farmland by increasing yield). We present a model that identifies how to resolve the trade-off between these approaches. This shows that the best type of farming for species persistence depends on the demand for agricultural products and on how the population densities of different species on farmland change with agricultural yield. Empirical data on such density-yield functions are sparse, but evidence from a range of taxa in developing countries suggests that high-yield farming may allow more species to persist.

1 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
2 Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, SG19 2DL, UK.
3 The Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
4 Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: reg29{at}hermes.cam.ac.uk

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)