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Science 19 April 2002:
Vol. 296. no. 5567, pp. 483 - 484
DOI: 10.1126/science.1070365
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Perspectives

CLIMATE MODELING:
How Accurate Are Climate Simulations?

Thomas M. Smith, Thomas R. Karl, Richard W. Reynolds

How accurately do climate models reproduce today's climate and that of the past? In their Perspective, Smith et al. compare model errors with observational sampling and analysis errors. The authors find that today's models are within the observed uncertainty, at least with respect to the 100-year record of observed global sea surface temperature. They conclude that to ensure adequate future climate records, more attention must be given to limiting the growing dependent biases of today's climate records.

The authors are at the National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801, USA. E-mail: Thomas.R.Karl{at}noaa.gov

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)